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Some Hard information on #COVID19 as compared to other epidemics in recent history.
==COVID-19==
R0 = 2.2
Global Mortality: 7%
Death Toll = 4,718 (and rising)
== 2009 Swine-flu ==
R0 = 1.5
Global Mortality: 0.04%
Death Toll = 500,000
== 2002 SARS ==
R0 = 3
Global Mortality: 9.6%
Death Toll = 349
== 1920 Spanish Flu ==
R0 = 2
Global Mortality: 2.5%
Death toll = 100 million
For those who don't know R0 is the average number of people who will contract the disease from an infected individual.
As you can see the numbers are very concerning. The only disease that had the same potential for damage as this would have been the SARS epidemic in 2002. Luckily it was contained early on and never spread. The big difference seems to be the 2002 SARS epidemic had very few if any asymptomatic individuals. So it was easy to stop the disease before it spread (artificially lowering the R0 effectively).
However the COVID-19 has a large portion of people with the disease whoa re asymptomatic. This causes the spread to go unhindered. Despite having a lower R0 and lower mortality rate the death toll is already more than 10x what it was for 2002 SARS.
The numbers are scary, it suggests to me, we are in for some really nasty times ahead...
@snow We dont, these are just the current best estimates. The R0 is more a lower bound in that sense
