A Concerned Scientist @BE@qoto.org

@jmcrookston

We're in this loop with COVID stuff where things we knew years ago keep being reported as new. Probably where we're headed with flu info, too.

@PacificNic

It's my understanding that current wastewater testing for Influenza A would catch an H5N1 outbreak. While I can't find any research confirming that, it IS a subtype of "Influenza A" so it makes sense.

If so, the wastewater does not show any signs of a human outbreak of H5N1.

https://biobot.io/risk-reports/influenza-and-rsv-wastewater-monitoring-in-the-u-s-week-of-april-22-2024/

@rolandelli

I've thought a bit about this for gardening and growing your own vegetables, at least. While I couldn't find a good study on H5N1, specifically, a 10% vinegar wash does inactivate H1N1.

A lot of people do wash veggies with vinegar solution already, so it seems like a good idea when possible given the possibility of wild bird feces anyway.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2813869/

(Edited to add the paper )

@Infoseepage

I would say obfuscate in place of minimize, but otherwise, yeah. They, at least, were careful to say that the milk MIGHT not be safe, etc. What they're doing is obfuscating in deference to dairy and cattle farmers, I think.

"The USDA did not respond to STAT’s questions about the rationale for the 30-animal cap."

I get the feeling questions are being asked, but, they're under no obligation to answer them at this point.

@Infoseepage

Absolutely. That info's in the thread above this latest one.

We also don't know about how milk transports around the country. I do know someone who purchases for a grocery chain and I reached out and she basically just said it's all algorithmically determined now and the milk in your store might come from your state or across the country at any given moment.

We simply don't have enough info to make firm conclusions, and that's a choice that's been made on purpose.

Statnews.com's update today with a few interesting tidbits again:

https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/26/h5n1-bird-flu-usda-cattle-testing-order-more-limited/

"farmers only have to test up to 30 animals in a given group. The guidance does not say how farmers should determine which 30 animals to test in larger groups that are being readied to be moved. The USDA did not respond to STAT’s questions about the rationale for the 30-animal cap."

"Under the new rules, cows that are to be moved between states must have samples collected and tested no more than a week prior to transport. A licensed or accredited veterinarian has to collect the samples — between 3 and 10 milliliters of milk per animal taken from each of the four teats. That’s very important, the USDA noted, because there have been reports of infected animals having virus in only one teat.

A strange feature of H5N1’s jump from birds into cows is that the virus seems to have developed an affinity for mammary tissue. Samples from sick cows show the highest levels of virus not in their noses but in their milk, suggesting that udders seem to be where H5N1 migrates to or infects."

"The USDA order does not apply to beef cattle or non-lactating dairy cattle, including calves, due to their lower risk profile, according to the guidance. But influenza researchers told STAT that not enough yet is known about the risks to non-lactating animals to leave them out."

34 herds in 9 states now confirmed:

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock

But almost certainly far more widespread.

"On Friday, the FDA issued an update saying that tests of several samples of retail powdered infant and toddler formula were negative, indicating no presence of H5N1 viral fragments or whole virus. It provided no details on the quantity tested."

"At this time, there have been no reported cases of H5N1-positive dairy cattle exhibiting any signs of neurological disease in the U.S."

I'm going to dump a few more articles that I've been reading here today. These ones are specifically related to previous mammal to mammal spread of H5N1, presented roughly in chronological order starting in 2004.

"Avian Influenza H5N1 in Tigers and Leopards"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/12/04-0759_article

"Probable Tiger-to-Tiger Transmission of Avian Influenza H5N1"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/11/5/05-0007_article

(Transmission route not determined, but they had stopped being fed raw chicken)

"H5N1 pathogenesis studies in mammalian models"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5858902/

(Interesting tidbit - "Notably, conjunctivitis and other ocular complications following influenza virus infection in humans are most frequently associated with the H7 subtype, but have been documented rarely during H5N1 virus infection (Belser et al., 2009a). Furthermore, the presence of SA on the corneal surface and linkage of ocular and respiratory tract tissues by the nasolacrimal ducts identifies the ocular system as both a potential site of replication as well as a route of entry to establish a respiratory infection (Kumlin et al., 2008). Although H5N1 viruses do not demonstrate a particular tropism for this tissue, ocular inoculation (with or without prior corneal scarification) of mice with H5N1 viruses resulted in a systemic infection, with infectious virus recovered from the lungs, brain, and eye of mice p.i. (Belser et al., 2009b; Sun et al., 2009). Selected H5N1 viruses were capable of mounting a lethal infection by this route, albeit with a 2–3 delay in mortality compared with i.n. inoculation (Belser et al., 2009b).")

"Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in farmed minks, Spain, October 2022"

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001

"Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Outbreak in New England Seals, United States"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/4/22-1538_article

"Mass Mortality of Sea Lions Caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus"

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/12/23-0192_article

"Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) in marine mammals and seabirds in Peru"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41182-0

New H5N1 info today from stat, although not from Helen Branswell this time.

https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/25/h5n1-bird-flu-cows-outbreak-likely-widespread/

I think this paints a pretty good picture of where we're at, in terms of the extent of the outbreak in dairy herds.

"They collected 150 commercial milk products from around the Midwest, representing dairy processing plants in 10 different states, including some where herds have tested positive for H5N1. Genetic testing found viral RNA in 58 samples, he told STAT."

For me, personally, this is both good and bad news.

On the one hand, the continuing drip of information saying that this has been going on longer than we knew, and is pretty widespread, means that the milk is almost certainly safe. At least, not acutely bad. If, for instance, as I have seen speculated(not on Mastodon), 50% of people would die from drinking contaminated milk we'd know. Agreed? Let's put that idea away.

Small sample size, but:

"The team that produced that data — the St. Jude and OSU groups — told STAT that it has so far analyzed four samples of store-bought milk that had tested positive via PCR for H5N1 genetic material. “We’ve done the viral growth assays to see if we can recover any virus from them and we can’t,” Webby said."

On the other hand, every mammal infection is another chance for a dangerous mutation. Just 5 amino acids, right? We've, hopefully, learned this lesson from COVID variants.

Now, what does 39% of samples testing positive in this case mean? I don't know! My first thought was that there's 64,155 dairy farms in the US, so near 25,000 must have infections, but, I realized I was making two big assumptions. One, milk from the Midwest is representative of the whole supply. Two, 150 was a significant sample size.

The FDA is now saying their testing found ~20% positive, but no information on where those samples came from, or how many they tested. Come on FDA!

I think it does suggest it's a lot more widespread than we previously knew. If this is the case, I think it's important that we now have genetic evidence of bird to cow, and then back to bird. Beyond the movement of cattle, this would be a way that you could see rapid spread across the nation.

I think the fact that early cases were said to have yellowed, viscous milk perhaps slowed the response. It's time(past time) to move to more mandatory testing given the newer information of asymptomatic infections.

@PacificNic

I've been kicking around an idea here, and I'm curious if you wouldn't mind telling me something. How much sugar to water do you use for a good water kefir ferment?

@PacificNic

Did you forage the nettles? We have wood nettles at the homestead that we've been thinking about collecting, but haven't yet.