CASBT @casbt@qoto.org

Находясь в жопе, ты можешь сделать две вещи.

Во-первых – постараться понять, почему ты в ней находишься.
Во-вторых – вылезти оттуда.

Ошибка отдельных людей и целых народов в том, что они думают, будто эти два действия как-то связаны между собой. А это не так. И вылезти из жопы гораздо проще, чем понять, почему ты в ней находишься.

– Почему?

– Вылезти из жопы надо всего один раз, и после этого про нее можно забыть. А чтобы понять, почему ты в ней находишься, нужна вся жизнь. Которую ты в ней и проведешь.

«Священная книга оборотня»

Шо ви тут :)

**Analytical Report and Forecast: Decisive Coups in Russian History**

*Abstract:* This report delves into the pivotal coups and revolutions that have shaped the trajectory of Russian history since the era of Ivan the Terrible. From the Time of Troubles to the annexation of Crimea, these events have left an indelible mark on Russia's political and social landscape. Through a comprehensive analysis, this report sheds light on the violent upheavals that have defined Russia's historical narrative.

*Keywords:* Russian History, Coups, Revolutions, Political Upheavals, Consequences.

*Editorial Comment:* The tumultuous history of Russia is punctuated by a series of coups and revolutions, each leaving a lasting impact on the nation's destiny. This report offers valuable insights into the turbulent forces that have shaped Russia's evolution and underscores the importance of understanding historical context in contemporary analysis.

*Disclaimer:* This investigation was conducted under time constraints and warrants thorough verification. The accounts presented herein may be subject to bias and manipulation, including potential interference from external actors. Readers are encouraged to exercise critical judgment and corroborate the information provided.

*Conclusion:* The coups and revolutions examined in this report stand as testament to the enduring volatility of Russian politics. As Russia navigates its path forward, it must reckon with the legacies of its turbulent past and strive for stability amidst uncertainty.

*Links:*
- [Alternative reddit: DOI - Lemmy](https://lemmy.ml/c/donoperinfo@infosec.pub)
- [InLEO - Real Alternative to Propaganda](https://inleo.io/communities/hive-194711)
- [BASTYON - Blockchain-Based Social Network](https://bastyon.com/oosi?ref=PRUDYqo4LdAJX8kbQMcDkusmGGmYYwYmnd)
- [Join "War In Ukraine" Community](https://inleo.io/communities/hive-194711)
- [Join "Team Ukraine" Community](https://inleo.io/communities/hive-165469)

Зафиксированы перемещения «Искандеров» ВС РБ в Минской области

Сегодня на трассе М5 была замечена колонна оперативно-тактического ракетного комплекса (ОТРК)«Искандер-М» ВС РБ. В составе колонны двигались три самоходные пусковые установки, три транспортно-заряжающие и одна командно-штабная машина. Колонну сопровождали два экипажа ВАИ РБ.

Колонна выехала на трассу М5 со стороны аг. Пуховичи и продолжила движение в направлении Осиповичей. МО РБ не сообщало о проведении учений с 465-й ракетной бригадой.

ОТРК «Искандер-М» находятся (https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7352) на вооружении 465-й ракетной бригады, которая дислоцируется в Осиповичах. Сообщалось, что в составе бригады есть два дивизиона (https://motolko.help/ru-news/obzor-voennyh-sobytij-v-belarusi-za-19-25-fevralya/), вооруженные «Искандерами». Также на вооружении бригады находятся ракетные комплексы «Точка-У»

Если вы или ваши знакомые наблюдали любую военную активность — сообщайте или передавайте информацию через друзей за границей в @HajunBYbot или через форму обратной связи на сайте (https://motolko.help/form/). Для нас важна любая информация.

Новость доступна на сайте
(https://motolko.help/ru-news/zafiksirovany-peremeshheniya-iskanderov-vs-rb-v-minskoj-oblasti/)
@hajun_by

**Analytical Report and Forecast: Movement of Iskander-M Missiles in Belarus**

*Abstract:* This report documents the sighting of a convoy transporting operational-tactical missile systems, specifically the "Iskander-M" missiles, belonging to the Armed Forces of Belarus within the Minsk voblast. The convoy, comprising self-propelled launchers, transport-loading vehicles, and command and staff vehicles, was observed accompanied by crews from the Bashkortostan Military Intelligence Service. The report analyzes the significance of this movement and its potential implications on regional security dynamics.

*Keywords:* Iskander-M Missiles, Belarus, Military Activity, Regional Security, Intelligence, Armed Forces.

*Editorial Comment:* The observed movement of Iskander-M missiles in Belarus raises concerns regarding regional stability and underscores the importance of robust surveillance and analysis of military activities. This report provides valuable insights for stakeholders invested in regional security and defense.

*Disclaimer:* This investigation was conducted under time constraints and requires thorough verification. The information presented herein may be subject to bias or misinformation. Readers are advised to exercise caution and seek additional sources to corroborate the findings.

*Conclusion:* The sighting of Iskander-M missiles in Belarus signifies a notable development in regional military dynamics. The implications of this movement warrant careful monitoring and analysis by relevant authorities. Continued vigilance is essential to ensure the maintenance of peace and stability in the region.

*Links:*
- [Original News Source](https://motolko.help/ru-news/zafiksirovany-peremeshheniya-iskanderov-vs-rb-v-minskoj-oblasti/)
- [Telegram Channel: Hajun_BY](https://t.me/Hajun_BY)
- [Alternative reddit: DOI - Lemmy](https://lemmy.ml/c/donoperinfo@infosec.pub)
- [InLEO - Real Alternative to Propaganda](https://inleo.io/communities/hive-194711)
- [BASTYON - Blockchain-Based Social Network](https://bastyon.com/oosi?ref=PRUDYqo4LdAJX8kbQMcDkusmGGmYYwYmnd)

The peak of democracy has passed: are we in for a retreat to autocracy?

The positioning of the confrontation between the West and the Axis of Evil is interpreted as a confrontation of "democracy against tyranny". This is true, but with the only nuance that, regardless of the outcome, there will be less democracy.

We have entered an era of global war for a new concept of security, which means that there will be no stop factors for the radical sides.

The war over security models collapses the old world order, so all winners become untouchable and all losers become bloody spewers.

But at the same time there is a struggle between right and left radical movements.

Thus, we have 2 wars:
1) "War on World Order";
2) "The War on the Governing Idea."

The first one will split the world order into two poles.

The second will lead to ideological "horseshoeing" of the poles, because the centrists capitulated in the struggle.

The previous similar model of war was between radical USSR and moderate democratic states.

Accordingly, the world order fragmented into spheres of influence that corresponded to democracy and tyranny.

But the new ideological war is interesting because the split will occur within the former democratic bloc.

The ultra-left, under the guise of "inclusion theory," will control personality in aspects of "inclusive expression."

The far-right will suppress personality through the model of "domination".

Meanwhile, the moderate forces have lost the information wave and are unable to generate a public agenda, so the radical minority will control the docile silent majority of centrists.

We have no ability to change this scenario because the media has knowingly gone to the "poles" of the right or left spectrum, selling an agenda.

Each of the global war models is acceptable on its own.

The struggle for world order occurs as soon as the old checks and balances collapse: since the UN has fallen as the central security institution, global war is imminent.

Ideological warfare (albeit at the radical cutting edge) is acceptable as a factor in the "shift to the center through culture war."

But a mixture of war over world order with radical ideological warfare is the path to establishing a tyrannical model everywhere.

You yourself will give up freedoms in favor of "security". And no one will give "freedoms" back.

That is, the role of the state will grow, and the role of horizontal social associations will decline.

At the same time, both radical Rightists and radical Leftists will lead to the "degeneration of civilization". Only some of them - by replacing talents with "quota principles", and others - by imposing conservative dictate.

And median development will be eliminated.

But. tyrannies will rule the mindless crowd, and democracies will stratify the thinking social masses ...

This will lead to an ideological civil war (under a "cultural" sauce) in the West under the reactive tyranny of the Axis.

That is, while the West will spend resources on ideological confrontation within the West itself, the Axis will spend resources on the defeat of Western civilization.

At the same time, the ultra-left will come out with the flags of the Axis collaborators against the supporters of civilizational development (remember the mass actions in support of Palestinian terrorists in the hearts of democracy).

The ultra-left will also shout about the "ecological" threat, the "threat of inclusiveness", etc., bringing the West to its energy knees before the "extractors" of energy resources - the Axis countries.

And the far-right will build isolationism, destroying the system of bloc-ism and mutual responsibility.

What have the Axis countries done in realizing this dangerous transition? They have abandoned the ideological content of the war - neither the PRC, nor the Russian Federation, nor the proxies in the person of North Korea and Iran have the cultural and ideological ground of internal division.

They are destroying society by turning citizens into slaves of the regime. They are people with variable values that fluctuate simultaneously with the fluctuation of propaganda.

Ideology in the Axis is a tool for zombifying the plebs, while in the West it is a factor of confrontation between elites.

Therefore, the ideological split will go through the West, and it will end in the stagnation of democracy with the departure into radical "ultra" directions.
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***

«Люди в блакитному» частина 2. Встановили агентів російських спецслужб у залі «Крокус».
https://casbt.blogspot.com/2024/03/nexta-on-x-men-in-blue-part-2-we-have_27.html