Helen Jackson @hjcksn@qoto.org

Nova Scotia wildfires occurred during some of the driest conditions on record, according to Canadian Forest Service scientist
https://torontosun.com/news/national/wildfire-in-southern-n-s-occurred-amid-some-of-driest-recorded-conditions-scientist

Apparently in May the Chinese gov released plans to build a national “water network” to manage flood and drought risk, including an intra-basin transfer from the Yangtze to the Yellow River. The Straits Times offers a critique:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/as-climate-change-hits-china-weighs-new-water-megaprojects

Lifetime emissions of a Hugging Face model: 50 tCO2
Annual emissions of a:
• distillery: ~10-70,000 tCO2
• paper mill: ~200,000 tCO2
• sugar factory: ~100,000 tCO2

Of course it's right that people are scrutinising the environmental impacts of AI, but there should also be a sense of proportion.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/08/artificial-intelligence-industry-boom-environment-toll

Did climate change contribute to May's flood disaster in Emilia-Romagna?

• A World Weather Attribution rapid assessment (not peer reviewed) found cumulative precipitation for first 21 days in May was wettest on record
• It also found no significant trend in 21-day spring rainfall in the region
• However according to Uni of Bologna hydrologist "climate models have limited reliability in simulating extreme rainfalls, especially at the local scale" and this type of rain event is particularly difficult to simulate as caused by convection
• Rain fell on dry and impermeable ground due to drought in Northern Italy leading to rapid run-off and flash flooding
• A Uni of Bologna civil engineer says land use change, changes in farming practices, narrowing of rivers likely played a role

https://www.nature.com/articles/d43978-023-00082-z

The AI regulation conversation is obviously focussed on AI safety, but I hope the Govt doesn't lose sight of the copyright issue. NLP users need to be able to easily and legitimately access content and approaching 1000s of individual websites for permission is prohibitive.

For those who don't follow this issue, the UK Govt had proposed to essentially waive copyright for text and data mining, but this proposal was dropped due to (understandable) objections from copyright holders.

As someone trying to build tools using NLP to mine large volumes of text, I don't mind paying for copyright content, but we definitely need a process that is more streamlined internationally.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/07/sunak-hopes-to-bring-biden-on-board-for-ai-safety-summit

I'm not a wildfire expert, but two red herrings always pop up on Twitter when there's a major wildfire:
1. People saying that if a fire was caused by arson, a dropped cig butt, a BBQ etc. then it was not caused by climate change. ALL wildfires have an ignition. Drier vegetation will make fires more likely to spread whatever their ignition.
2. People saying "there have always been fires, it's just weather" etc. If climate change is permanently changing your weather with the result that days of high fire risk are more frequent and occur later and earlier in the year, then your society needs to be prepared for the consequences. Dismissing the long-term direction and the entirely foreseeable risks which have been set out in official gov reports helps no-one.

• Increases in fire spread days, extreme values of the FWI and the length of the fire season are projected in future due to climate change. How much varies between studies.
• It looks in detail at a major wildfire in 2016 & the extent to which climate change made it more likely

• it then some cites some studies which do not include any data later than 2002, not that helpful given some of the massive events of recent years
• "Higher temps in the future will contribute to increased values of [fire weather] indices and, therefore, increased fire risk."

• The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is used to capture fire risk and define days when fires are likely to spread
• A few studies have looked at trends in these indices across Canada, but trends are difficult to detect due to large year-to-year variability

• Changing precipitation and temperature (along with changing wind) alter the risk of extreme wildfires that can result from hot, dry, and windy conditions. We need to understand how these will change to understand how wildfire risk will change.

FWIW here's a precis of what the Canadian Government's "Canada’s Changing Climate Report", published in 2019, says about wildfires #CanadaWildfires (see Box 4.2, Chapter 4: https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/)

ClimateNode is building tools for AI-assisted climate risk research.

These techniques can be used to:

• compress knowledge dispersed amongst 1000s of documents
• horizon scan for risks relevant to individual organisations and their assets
• identify risks and historic impacts relevant to critical points in supply chains
• improve knowledge of secondary perils
• improve understanding of how drought, heat, floods and hail are affecting agriculture
• understand on-the-ground non-climate factors relevant to identifying risks, for example, water management practices

More:
https://www.climatenode.org/maps/ai-assisted-research.html

Lack of flood risk assessment led to train derailment in Australia, finds investigation
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-06/atsb-flood-risks-not-identified-nana-glen-train-derailment/102446064

Chinese ministries issue warning over potential impact of extreme weather on food production over next few months
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3222902/extreme-weather-threatens-chinas-food-security-ministries-predict-summer-droughts-and-floods

Israel joins the list of countries with grids creaking during heatwaves following power cuts last Friday. This article blames inefficiency and bureaucracy for Israel's failure (so far) to adapt its grid to rising temperatures
https://www.timesofisrael.com/recent-heatwaves-power-cuts-underline-failure-to-adequately-ready-for-climate-change/

Australian insurers need to make sure householders who improve their properties' resilience get cheaper premiums, says minister
“They ought to tell households in advance about things they can do that will bring their premiums down”
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/disaster-ready-home-owners-should-get-cheaper-insurance-20230529-p5dc0i

Main reservoir serving Montevideo severely depleted amid 'historic drought'
https://www.fijitimes.com/uruguayans-pray-for-rain-as-capital-reservoir-left-with-10-days-of-water/

Next time someone tells you that we can simply adapt to climate change, tell them even developed countries are struggling to do it well at current emissions levels. Italian flood resilience plan was shelved in 2018.
https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/22/years-ago-italy-created-a-task-force-entrusted-with-preventing-flooding-why-didnt-it-work

NZ Got announces NZ$6 billion for transport resilience, accepts that in extreme cases of 'unremitting' impacts infrastructure might not get rebuilt
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/transport-minister-michael-wood-real-possiblity-some-roads-will-be-abandoned/ZGXBCY734VCZVCTWP6JYWBUOQQ/

Vietnam planning nationwide blackouts as grid struggles with heat and depleted hydro reservoirs
QT: https://mastodon.world/@CNnews/110411507441209742