Judith van Stegeren

I'm reading Superforecasting by Philip R. Tetlock. Love the book and the research so far -- now I would love to build some kind of LLM predictions leaderboard with Brier-scores for all major thinking LLMs...

#predictionmarkets #llms #superforecasting #forecasting #predictions #genai

ma𝕏pool

Polymarket question: "will Jesus Christ return in 2025?" has a 3% probability.

Polymarket wants to provide a public good: correct probability estimates. It fails because how the market is structured and limited.

spoiler: "The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price."

ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/

#economics #predictionMarkets #mechanismDesign #MarketDesign #gameTheory

Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?

Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion. Polymarket…

Unexpected Values
May 29, 2025, 17:02 · · · 1 · 0
M. Grégoire

Does anyone have recommendations about #PredictionMarkets? #Polymarket, #PredictIt, others? What's best for a user in Canada?

None of them seem to be legal in Canada at present...

#betting

Apr 16, 2025, 17:02 · · · 0 · 0
petersuber

Comparing the predicted #replicability of a study with its actual replicability.
nature.com/articles/s41562-024

"Both beginners and more-experienced participants…have some ability to make better-than-chance predictions about the reliability of ‘fast science’ under conditions of high uncertainty."

For more along these lines, esp #PredictionMarkets for #replication, see the Twitter thread I started in 2020, which I plan to continue here in Mastodon. Watch this space.
x.com/petersuber/status/125952

#Predictions #Preprints #Reproducibility

Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints - Nature Human Behaviour

This study assessed COVID-19 social science preprints’…

Nature
Dec 23, 2024, 18:53 · · · 3 · 0
M. Grégoire

I see that the French investor who made a USD $30M bet on #Polymarket that Mr. Trump would win has made a USD $13M profit.

#PredictionMarkets

Miguel Afonso Caetano

"The prediction market Polymarket has skyrocketed into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 U.S. elections, with the platform reporting that users have placed $2.7 billion in bets over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected president in early November.

But analysts at two crypto research firms have found evidence of rampant wash trading on Polymarket, even as its odds have been shared widely across social media and mainstream media outlets. Donald Trump currently has a 67% chance of winning, according to the platform.

In separate investigations completed by the blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital and shared exclusively with Fortune, analysts found that Polymarket activity exhibited signs of wash trading, a form of market manipulation where shares are bought and sold, often simultaneously and repeatedly, to create a false impression of volume and activity. Chaos Labs found that wash trading constituted around one-third of trading volume on Polymarket’s presidential market, while Inca Digital found that a “significant portion of the volume” on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading, according to its report.

While other prediction markets, including Kalshi and Robinhood, have launched in the U.S. since a pivotal court decision in September legalized electoral betting, Polymarket remains the largest platform by far, thanks in part to its crypto-native design and offshore operations. Polymarket remains inaccessible to U.S. investors. Still, with less than a week until Election Day, the suspicious activity on Polymarket raises questions about the accuracy of the site, which, its 26-year-old founder Shayne Coplan has touted, can “demystify the real-world events that matter most to you.”"

fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/

#USA #Politics #PresidentialElection2024 #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Crypto #Cryptocurrencies #WashTrading

petersuber

Update. Slight shift in perspective: Not using #AI to do #PeerReview but to predict the outcome of human peer review.
link.springer.com/article/10.1

See my old (pre-Mastodon) Twitter thread on the same and similar ideas.
x.com/petersuber/status/125952

#Prediction #PredictionMarkets

Don Marti

Maybe the best way to evaluate "AI" is: can a bot stay solvent in a #predictionMarket while paying interest on its stake and rent for its computing resources?

blog.zgp.org/money-bots-talk/

(plus hella bonus links this time...for some reason the AI skeptic articles are better written than the AI fan articles, maybe it's the whole pay the writers thing?) #predictionMarkets

Money bots talk and bullshit bots walk?

blog.zgp.org
Joel Snyder

I’m part of the #EEGManyLabs project testing the #replicability of influential #EEG studies. We are using #PredictionMarkets as a tool in this effort and you are invited to take part, especially if you have some expertise in EEG research, no matter how little. See below for details.

You may well know about the success of “prediction markets” in forecasting the likelihood of replication (e.g., Dreber et al., PNAS 2015). We are delighted to announce that we have partnered with economists who led these seminal studies to test the wisdom of the EEG community.

From today (as we near the end of recruitment for this project - please see last calls below), we are opening a survey to ask you to vote on the likelihood of some hypotheses studied in the #EEGManyLabs project. Subsequently, you will be invited to bet on the likelihood of success through a stock market platform, where you will earn real money for you or a selected charity.

The success of this effort will become clear when we complete the full project in a few years time. But the results will immediately tell us about the degree of optimism/pessimism amongst our community.

So, please share this widely and place your bets now...

How can I sign up for the prediction markets? Registrations to participate in the prediction markets are administered via the sign-up form linked below. You must have experience of working with EEG (for example, through collecting and/or analysing EEG data, which may be evidenced by having published peer-reviewed articles or preprints with EEG or equivalent experience e.g. designing, collecting and analysing data from EEG experiments).

#neuroscience #psychology #replication #replicationcrisis #reproducibility #metascience

pavlovug-dot-yamm-track.appspo

Qualtrics Survey | Qualtrics Experience Management

The most powerful, simple and trusted way to gather…

pavlovug-dot-yamm-track.appspot.com
Lars Trieloff

#metaculus is asking the important questions: “will a #StarTrek and #StarWars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060” – considering industry consolidation, copyright duration, AI capabilities, and monetization pressure, I’m at 61% for yes #predictions #predictionMarkets metaculus.com/questions/16011/

Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?

Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate…

www.metaculus.com
Don Marti

problem: #predictionMarkets can be a cost-effective, accurate way to predict business outcomes, but in real-world companies the prediction market project gets killed when it calls some exec's "baby" ugly

possible solution: #privateEquity firm that requires the companies it owns to keep the prediction market up? Have the prediction market administrator report directly to the board of directors?

James Harris

Elon Musk got me a lovely New Years' gift this year: a Twitter outage that won me a bet. 🧵

#predictionmarkets #twitterdown

Collected Over Spread

"Prediction Market FAQ" on Astral Codex Ten astralcodexten.substack.com/p/

An introduction to #PredictionMarkets and how they work.

"[Q:] What can I do to help promote prediction markets? [A:] If you’re an ordinary person with no special expertise or skills, I think the best thing you can do is create a Manifold Markets account, bet on topics that are interesting to you, and create markets for any interesting topics that don’t have one yet."

Prediction Market FAQ

...

astralcodexten.substack.com
Olivia Appleton

I am really happy about the outcome of the elections so far

Mostly because I feared much much worse

Partly because I made a whole bunch of money off of it. The breakdown is going to be something like [$40, $100] cash + [$30, $35) fungible to charity. I'm also now number 24 on that site for all time profit

Making #PredictionMarkets one of my Special Interests was a great idea

William Gunn

[Currently open to be #fedihired!] Most recently, I was the Head of #Communications and #PR at #Quora. Before that, I ran #scholcomm at Elsevier, after Mendeley was acquired. Cofounded the #Reproducibility Initiative with Science Exchange and The Center for Open Science (cos.io/rpcb). Intellectual interests include #progressstudies, #predictionmarkets, #metarationality. Still a #scientist at heart. Central theme of my career: Be a catalyst, not a reagent.

Nov 06, 2022, 21:54 · · · 1 · 0