#recession

Economists and markets are having trouble resolving the conflicting, opposing directions of a #recession and high #inflation. Most believe rates will drop, but what if the unemployment rate remains steady despite lower GDP? What if inflation rapidly triples through the 3rd quarter? The anticipation of lower rates is based on economic orthodoxy, but it's unresponsive to #stagflation, and as I keep pointing out, the Beveridge Curve has been nearly vertical since Nov 2022.

#Economy #USPol

The U.S. #economy’s looking shaky—despite Trump’s bragging. #JobGrowth has basically stalled and real unemployment is closer to 8% than the official 4.2%

Meanwhile, the #GDP “growth” of 3% is mostly smoke—padded by lowball #inflation estimates and a temporary dip in imports from Trump’s #tariffs.

Add in his new #TaxCuts for the rich and deep spending cuts hitting workers and states, and a #recession is looking more and more likely. The next 6–12 months could get rough.

https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/the-recession-door-opens/

“There’s one person who can afford to be cavalier about the uncertainty that he’s creating, & that’s Donald Trump,” said Rachel West, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation who worked in the #Biden White House on #labor policy. “The rest of Americans are already paying the price for that uncertainty.”

#Trump #economy #tariffs #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #geopolitics #law #Congress #SeparationOfPowers

…“There’s no sort of rationale for this other than the president wanting to raise #tariffs based upon his whims, his opinions,” Ryan told CNBC on Wednesday. “I think choppy waters are ahead because I think they’re going to have some legal challenges.”

…As of now, #Trump still foresees an economic boom while the rest of the world & American voters wait nervously.

#economy #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #geopolitics #law #Congress #SeparationOfPowers

Total #construction spending has dropped 2.9% over the past year, & the factory #jobs promised by #Trump have so far resulted in job losses.

The lead-up to Thursday fit the slapdash nature of Trump’s #tariffs, which have been variously rolled out, walked back, delayed, increased, imposed by letter & frantically renegotiated.

#economy #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #geopolitics #law #Congress #SeparationOfPowers

…But so far, there are signs of self-inflicted wounds to America as companies & #consumers alike brace for the impact of new taxes. What the data has shown is a #US #economy that changed in April with #Trump’s initial rollout of #tariffs, an event that led to market drama, a negotiating period & Trump’s ultimate decision to start his universal tariffs on Thursday.

#inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #geopolitics #law #Congress #SeparationOfPowers

The White House said that starting just after midnight that goods from >60 countries & the #EuropeanUnion would face tariff rates of 10% or higher. Products from the #EU, #Japan & #SouthKorea will be taxed at 15%, while imports from #Taiwan, #Vietnam & #Bangladesh will be taxed at 20%. For places such as the EU, Japan & South Korea, #Trump also *expects* them to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the #US.

#economy #tariffs #inflation #recession
https://apnea’s.com/article/trump-tariffs-into-effect-economy-warning-signs-eafe20de9abad312573b320fd4b5fb33

Companies are dealing with the #tariffs in various ways. For example many automakers appear to be swallowing the costs – for now. But most economists say the cost will ultimately be borne by #US #consumers & #businesses to some degree.

#Trump #economy #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #geopolitics #law #Congress #SeparationOfPowers

#Trump‘s wide-ranging #tariffs went into effect at 12:01 AM ET on Thurs, just as the economic fallout of his months of threatening them is surfacing in visible damage to the #economy.

The import taxes will reach a level not seen in the #US in almost 100 years, with Americans expected to pay an average of 18.3% more for imported products. That’s the highest rate since 1934….

#inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #geopolitics #law #Congress #SeparationOfPowers
https://apnews.com/live/trump-tariff-news-updates-8-7-2025?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=2025-08-07-Breaking+News

By contrast, the bipartisan #CHIPS & #Science Act signed into #law in 2022 by then-President Joe #Biden provided more than $50 billion to support new #computer #chip plants, fund #research & train #workers for the industry. The mix of #funding support, #TaxCredits & other financial incentives were meant to draw in private investment, a strategy that #Trump has vocally opposed.

#tariffs #economy #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #Trumpcession

During the #COVID-19 #pandemic, a shortage of #ComputerChips increased the price of #autos & contributed to an overall uptick in #inflation.

Inquiries sent to #chip makers Nvidia & Intel were not immediately answered.

Demand for #computer #chips has been climbing worldwide, with sales increasing 19.6% in the year-ended in June, according to the World #Semiconductor #Trade Statistics organization.

#Trump #tariffs #economy #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #Trumpcession

#Trump said Wednesday that he will impose a 100% #tariff on #ComputerChips, likely raising the cost of #electronics, #autos, household #appliances & other goods deemed essential for the #digital age.

"We'll be putting a tariff on of approximately 100% on #chips & #semiconductors," [sic] Trump said…. "But if you're building in the United States of America, there's no charge."

#economy #inflation #PersonalFinance #business #recession #Trumpcession
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-he-plans-to-put-100-tariff-on-computer-chips-likely-increasing-electronics-costs

#cultculture will insert head in ass. Don't believe the #hype.

"Markets go up and down." Is the #Republicans view on the #tariffs #recession and #inflation.
"Trump’s redneck recession hits his working-class base the hardest."
#election2026
#2026election
#NoKings !
Despite stock market highs, the US president risks losing the base that voted him into office."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/06/donald-trump-inspired-wall-street-boom-redneck-recession/

US flirts with recession

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/08/us-flirts-with-recession.html

#EconMastodon #Economy #TradeWar #Recession

Since we apparently won't be getting any truthful #employment numbers from the regime, it's even more important to talk now about the special harm the regime's madness is causing to Black workers.

Bernice King highlighted this article, and the numbers are just eye popping.

Following a long standing historical trend where economic downturns are worse for people of color, Black workers are already in the #Trump #recession that is coming for us all.

https://www.essence.com/news/money-career/black-unemployment-july-2025-report/
#unemployment

"(T)he numbers were not phony. They were actually exactly what you’d expect given #Trump’s relentless effort to destroy the robust #economy left to him by #Biden."
___
The looming #Trumpcession - by Noah Berlatsky https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-jobs-report-july-recession?ICID=ref_fark

#uspol #Trumpconomy #TrumpRecession #Recession

The data was never "ridiculous" when #Biden was president.

It's was simply described as #recession and #inflation.
#JimCramer
#cnbc
#Premarket
#investing
#JOLTS

#CNBC #MAGA are avoiding the facts on #tariffs #tax.

The tariffs reduce US annual GDP by 0.36%. This equates to US$108.2 billion or $861 per household per year. US GDP was negative in Q1. If GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters, that is a #recession. As US warehouses run down inventories and stockpiles, there could be a rocky road ahead.
#Republicans
#election2026
#2026election
#Premarket
#investing

#JoeKernen on #CNBC forgot the point he is trying to avoid is #recession.
#Premarket
#investing
#squawkbox

US definitely slowing

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/08/us-definitely-slowing.html

#Economy #EconMastodon #recession