#baseratefallacy
These are public posts tagged with #baseratefallacy. You can interact with them if you have an account anywhere in the fediverse.
"When Cognitive Reflection Leads to Less Overall but More Systematic Judgment Bias":
Participants who performed better on trick math and logic questions (a.k.a., reflection tests) were MORE (not less) likely to commit a statistical error: a "tendency to underestimate base rates".
However, the performing well on the trick questions also predicted a LOWER absolute (value of) error.
https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence11060100
#decisionScience #cogSci #psychology #probability #CriticalThinking #BaseRateFallacy
@jbaert Ik hoop dat ze dat niet doen: 26% True Positive, 9% False Positive ... Als 10% van de klas ChatGPT gebruikt, dan gaat 75% van de ‘dit is een AI’ voorspellingen een valse beschuldiging zijn. #BaseRateFallacy
A good thread explaining Base Rate Fallacy & #Covid #Perceptions #Statistics #Logic #Analysis #BaseRateFallacy #Fallacies https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1615018133814657033.html
If you (correctly) knew to debunk the message behind “most people dying of COVID were vaccinated” but not that behind “most people with Long COVID had a mild initial case,” maybe ask yourself why. #BaseRateFallacy
Another #framingEffect?
In "The Allure of #Simplicity", Jack Justus, Samantha Wakil and I run three #experiments on people's evaluations of explanations.
Merely labeling explanations 'simpler' or 'simplest' made people more vulnerable to the #baseRateFallacy and the #conjunctionFallacy!
Jack and I present our data and conclusions at #PSA2022 on Saturday.
#xPhi #PhilSci #CogSci #DecisionScience #Rationality #Epistemology #Psychology #Science #SciComm #Virtue
the allure of simplicity framing effects and theoretical…
psa2022.dryfta.comA wonderful lecture on #bias #rationality #bayes #baseratefallacy and other topics :
@publicvoit@mastodon.socialRT @edri@twitter.com
Why #EU passenger #surveillance fails its purpose
https://edri.org/why-eu-passenger-surveillance-fails-its-purpose
#PNR #BaseRateFallacy #NoPNR #MassSurveillance #EDRigram
@epicenter_works@twitter.com
