@glw907@mas.to @thezerobit
I'm not certain that that is the case. Alaska's 2022 election may not be the best example of ranked choice voting.
Alaskans can't stand Palin generally. Had it been the old system, Palin would have won the red primary and Peltola would have won the Blues.
The same issue exists however, half those that voted for the reds wouldn't vote for Palin. Peltola is hitting 47-48% as is, before rank choice. Palin would have still got roughly the same votes as she did for the special election, which wouldn't have been enough. So for this election it will essentially be the same outcome for either system. No one has 50% and it would go into a runoff. Rank choice means I voted for my runoff already essentially so it speeds things up.
Of course this will be really determined by how the Alaska results at the end of the month go. Will the reds choose power over Thier dislike of Palin. I dont believe so, I'm betting on Peltola.
For Murkowski, there are similar issues, so I wouldn't use this as an example either. she won on a write in campaign before. Generally she has done good things for the State in her committees and resource/energy laws. So Alaskans have been affected positively by her while she's been in Congress. Ranked choice allowed voters to vote for the blue, but I'll be shocked if Murkowski doesn't get all or most of the blue votes as a second. This would have played out the same way in either system, however the outcome will take longer to come out with ranked choice. Ranked choice does send a signal to Murkowski however. It will give an actual number of how many blues/reds/others are voting for her this election, and specifically that she won because of those votes. In theory this may affect her policies down the road.
There isn't a lot of policy debate or plans in Alaska's elections. Voter's are not really ranking that way as the info isn't necessarily there or focused on. For the special election/primary there was a large number of candidates, but not a lot of competition going on really. Similarly with Peltola/Palin there wasn't a lot of competition or tricks. There was a lot for Palin/Begich on the red side but that was mostly it for the whole election. In the future this won't be the case. Rank choice should tend twards forcing more debate/comparisons/competition between candidates. So they will actually need policy and plans.
Additionally everyone is figuring out strategies for rank choice. I think the peltola race would have been different if Begich had been the second place instead of Palin, as Palin's votors would have likely voted red as a second choice which would have been enough for the 50% threshold. We only got a blue victory because Palin was so disliked and because Palin was second place, eliminating Begich during the ranked choice. Thinking on it it, the jungle style primary may be just as important as the ranked choice getting away from two party monopoly
