@johnclint I have more questions than answers.

I have theories but I know they may be nothing more than confirmation bias. My sample size of two congregations is too small to be statistically relevant I suppose.

One question is...what led to the drop in membership in the first place?

The answer to the problem, according to the NPR article, is to become less churchy. But... That's not a new idea. Becoming more "culturally relevant" and more "seeker friendly". These trends have been around since... The peak attendance years? Is that when those ideas hit it big time? Is it possible that churches are doubling down in the same strategies that contributed to the drop in attendance in the first place?

I don't know.

The Roman Catholic attendance seems to have stabilized. Maybe there's more data available there.

I am not convinced that doing the right thing is always popular. Attendance counts for some things, but a shrinking church could be a better church than a growing church.