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"Outside of Wuhan, no evidence was found of any significant increase in overall mortality, suggesting the success of the rapid control of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in addition to appropriate maintenance of healthcare services during the nationwide lockdown."
In this thread I will use travel data to show that the lockdown was too late for this to have been possible.
I will further show that this study uses distorted graphs making the lockdown look like it occurred earlier than it really did.
Liu J, Zhang L, Yan Y, Zhou Y, Yin P, Qi J et al.
Excess mortality in Wuhan city and other parts of China during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak: findings from nationwide mortality registries
BMJ 2021; 372 :n415
doi:10.1136/bmj.n415
Fig 1
Trends in weekly observed (dashed orange lines) versus predicted (blue solid lines) mortality rates for selected major diseases between 1 January and 31 March 2020 in China across different Disease Surveillance Point areas.
First vertical dotted line indicates the time when lockdown was implemented in Wuhan.
Cursor is pointing to the part of this image I'll be examining more closely.
