FWIW here's a precis of what the Canadian Government's "Canada’s Changing Climate Report", published in 2019, says about wildfires #CanadaWildfires (see Box 4.2, Chapter 4: https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/)
• Changing precipitation and temperature (along with changing wind) alter the risk of extreme wildfires that can result from hot, dry, and windy conditions. We need to understand how these will change to understand how wildfire risk will change.
• The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is used to capture fire risk and define days when fires are likely to spread
• A few studies have looked at trends in these indices across Canada, but trends are difficult to detect due to large year-to-year variability
• it then some cites some studies which do not include any data later than 2002, not that helpful given some of the massive events of recent years
• "Higher temps in the future will contribute to increased values of [fire weather] indices and, therefore, increased fire risk."
