The climate freak-out du jour is, typically, horribly misrepresenting a very technical paper about the AMOC. E.g., if you read this https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other you'll get a clear sense that the climate will soon pass a "tipping point" and "The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025" or worse - as one person said, "The North Atlantic Conveyor is going to fail over the next decade."
That is not exactly what the paper says.
1/2
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf has a much more accurate take: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/
His conclusion:
"Timing of the critical AMOC transition is still highly uncertain, but increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 % during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades. The conservative IPCC estimate, based on climate models which are too stable and don’t get the full freshwater forcing, is in my view outdated now."
And we need to take climate action. 2/2
@chrisnelder The crux is the paragraph just before that conclusion imho. ⤵️ First it is the source of year 2025 in The Guardian. Then near certainty of a tipping point this century and a most probable time around 2050, this is too close for my comfort!
@chrisnelder But I am not a doomist: I see this as a motivation to move faster and more aggressively to a world without fossil fuels. The faster to net zero, the lower the final temperature, the less likely we hit that tipping point. Even if that gives only a small chance, it’s better than nothing considering the danger.