This will be my last 🧵 of caution urging you to take care this New Year's Eve. There's a lot going on that the media and even the CDC are not promoting. I guarantee the risks are greater than you think they are. Some of you think we're in the end-stages of the #COVID19 pandemic. I think we're likely in the Fμ<% Around and Find Out (FAFO) stage. All the maskless crowds, parties and travel combined with the failure to get the bivalent booster is the FA part, and 2023 may bring us the FO portion.
In the US, there has been a leak of CDC info that suggests the agency has failed to disclose just how dangerous the new VBB.1.5 variant is at the current time (https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1608704548536975360). If accurate, XBB.1.5 went from almost no US cases to 40% of cases in a month. It'a already predominant in the Northeast US, and in states where it is most established, COVID hospitalizations are at their peak for the past 12 months.
@augieray
Ding is an alarmist, and not trained in ID. XBB concern is true, but he poses things as leaks. They are not.
@johnettesnuggs
@CMDoran @johnettesnuggs First of all, the leak has been verified already. So, it was not false, and it was an accurate leak. Second, he is alarmist, but he's right more than he is mistaken. I find him a balance for the scores of public health leaders ignoring the growing number of studies showing long-term risks, the rise of COVID in wastewater, and the advance of mutations. It's healthy to listen to those who are correct more than they are incorrect.
@augieray
Drafts of the NowCast come out on Friday. It is not a scoop. His ALL CAPS Mother of God tweets are tiring. Yes, too many ppl downplay the threat of the ongoing pandemic. He is too far (for me) in the other direction.
@johnettesnuggs
@CMDoran @johnettesnuggs 1) he got the info a day or two before the Nowcast. 2) He was correct the CDC failed to acknowledge the spectacular growth of XBB was obscured. The CDC knew a week ago that XBB.1.5 grew from 2.7% to 21.7% in two weeks and that somehow seemed not worthy of attention. 3) I already agreed he's alarmist, but he's about 20% too alarmist while Topol is about 40% too careful and Walensky seems asleep at the wheel. I follow a mix of people. Discounting Ding is, IMO, wrong.
@augieray @CMDoran @johnettesnuggs This is so spot on. I credit Dr Ding and Dr Leonardi in large part, for our family's health at this point. I don't care if either of them hedge towards too alarmist at all. If this all has taught me anything it's that I'd rather err on the side of caution.
I read Dr Topol, but I also find him too laid back about it all at times. I called him out for saying there wouldn't be a winter wave this year and to the best of my knowledge he hasn't addressed it at all. I don't know why people need to continually forecast sunny skies when there's obviously clouds on the horizon...
@BE @augieray @CMDoran
It’s amazing to me how many people, even medical people, have forgotten the basics of health class and how germs spread. Distancing and wearing a mask are really kind of common sense. I’m not even a scientist, but I know that.