Just a brief three-minute #COVID19 update that's a little more positive than I expected at this point in January. Some good news in the short-term, but more caution for the months ahead:

- CHINA: The situation in China is very concerning but seems unlikely to impact the rest of the world. Experts think 900 million Chinese have been infected, and they worry about the impact of the upcoming lunar holiday (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64258799).

COVID reporting out of China is terrible, but videos shared on social media show overwhelmed hospitals (https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/chinese-hospitals-overwhelmed-as-covid-cases-surge-159446085991) and satellite images suggest an increase in demand for crematoriums and mortuaries (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/satellite-images-china-covid-outbreak-rcna65238).

However, experts are now dismissing the risks China's surge will create a wave of new dangerous variants for the West. The variants surging in China are ones that will most impact an infection-naive population, whereas the variants we face in the US and Europe have been sharpened by evolution to most impact populations with higher immunity from vaccines and infections (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/30/risk-of-a-dangerous-new-covid-variant-in-china-is-quite-low-us-health-expert-says.html).

- US GENERALLY IMPROVING THIS WEEK: Risks seem to be declining right (for now!) in the US, with COVID in wastewater trending down (https://biobot.io/data/). Different regions face different situations. The most concerning variant, XBB1.1.5, seems to be peaking in the Northeast. Hospitalizations seem to have stopped rising in NY, NJ and MA, but are still escalating in CT and RI (https://covidactnow.org/us/new_york-ny/?s=44783224).

I'd still urge my friends in the Northeast to be cautious, but COVID risks elsewhere are largely trending down this week. In fact, even by the ridiculously lax standards of the CDC's Community Levels map, the populated areas of the Northeast are all high risk, and the CDC recommends masking in these areas (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=CommunityLevels).

- BUT THE US MAY TREND UP AGAIN WITHIN A MONTH: I do not think, however, we should expect that to last. XBB.1.5 is still spreading across the US, and it seems likely to cause increased infections and hospitalizations, as it did in the Northeast. (The only question is if our reduced post-holiday travel and activities may prevent or reduce another surge.)

- SERIOUS RISKS CONTINUE AND SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED: People continue to pretend COVID is just like the flu, yet over 100 studies have found risks of longer-term damage to our bodies (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12VbMkvqUF9eSggJsdsFEjKs5x0ABxQJi5tvfzJIDd3U/edit?usp=sharing). Once all the data is calculated, it is anticipated COVID will remain one of the top five causes of death in the US for 2022. For example, last year, 226 law enforcement officers died, almost one third (70) from COVID (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-leading-cause-law-enforcement-deaths-2022-3rd/story?id=96363324).

COVID continues to hospitalize and kill far more than the worst of flu seasons. Typical flu seasons kill 12,000 to 52,000 people, and the worst, more than 50 years ago, killed a bit over 100,000. COVID is still taking 3,000 lives a week. COVID isn't as deadly as it has been, but many are ignoring the significant and continuing risks of acute illness, death, and long-term health impairment.