I think a dynamic that Dems aren't ready to deal with is that a lot of problems caused by conservative governance do not produce a backlash, but actually strengthen conservatives politically. Mass shootings seem like a prototypical example.

Making everyone afraid and terrified of their neighbors and of public places (and terrified of potentially upsetting mal-adjusted and aggressive young men who might become mass shooters) makes people more receptive to conservative messages, not more averse to them.

Very similar to domestic abuse dynamics where a lot of abuse makes it harder to leave rather than prompting abused victim to go.

Forcing the rest of the country (eventually) into a "let 'er rip" Covid response and undermining the government response at every turn: you'd think there would be a backlash to killing hundreds of thousands of Americans but the cause and effect isn't that direct. Instead sow distrust of institutions (the hospitals are full! look how they failed you!) and that redounds to conservatives' benefit.

Conservatives like Youngkin and DeSantis both seems to understand explicitly that rejecting new jobs in their state actually *help* them politically.

The most conservative states are the ones full of retirees and economic depression - where the type of college educated under 50 voter who is overwhelmingly likely to be a Dem now - will flee rather than stay and fight you.

And I certainly worry about this with the debt ceiling catastrophe looming. A collapse of the financial system seems like it will be counter-intuitively good for conservatives, which will sow even more distrust of government and institutions and benefit conservative politicians who are increasingly open to receiving money from foreign oligarchs and cryptocurrency scammers who all benefit from this.