+++ No Collateral Excess Mortality Due to Lockdown
Thread in 18 parts
From Corona deniers you can hear again and again that one does not die FROM but WITH Corona. According to this there should not be any excess mortality. /1
When the real existing excess mortality could no longer be denied, it was claimed to be a consequence of the corona measures. They said these deaths were mainly a consequence of the lockdown. /2
There would be more suicides and deaths due to postponed medical examinations, neglected elderly care, etc. Some also claim that people have died out of sheer panic.
In the following I will refute this collateral damage thesis using the example of Spain. /3
Why Spain?
1. there was a huge excess mortality in Spain
2. Spain had the strictest lockdown in Europe
The points 1. and 2. seem to confirm the collateral damage thesis. /4
63% excess mortality in Spain between 11 March and 9 May 2020:
Further reasons for Spain as a study object,
3. there is a large antibody study that shows how high the incidence of infection was in the different parts of the country.
4. the lockdown started everywhere in Spain at the same time and was equally strict everywhere. /5
The lockdown began on the 14th March and came to an end with the nationwide start of Phase 0 of the 4-phase plan on the 9th May. The end of the lockdown proceeded differently in the individual parts of the country, so that no comparative studies are possible after may 9th. /6
If the collateral damage hypothesis would be correct, then the level of excess mortality would be independent of the occurrence of infection. /7
I used the results of this epidemiological study as a basis for my analysis:
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/ciudadanos/ene-covid/docs/ESTUDIO_ENE-COVID19_INFORME_FINAL.pdf
I also used data from the following report on excess mortality:
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%2021%20de%20septiembre_CNE.pdf
/9
The excess mortality is very different in various parts of the country: /10
This graph shows the correlation of IgG positive tests with excess mortality in different regions of Spain of the first data collection round.
The x-axis describes the percentage of positive IgG antibody tests in the 1st round of the Spanish antibody study. /12
This is the correlation with the data of the 2nd data collection round.
The Y-axis describes the percentage excess mortality of the respective Spanish region, weighted by the number of days in which the EM was present in the period from 09/03/2020 to 05/11/2020. /13
Regions without excess mortality, or with less than 500 deaths in the period of their respective excess mortality, were filtered out to minimize scatter effects in a small population. (Only 1.3% of excess mortality in Spain is affected by this filtering). /14
Data table:
The creation of IgG starts 7-10 days after the first symptoms appear. In the first week the sensitivity is only about 30%. From the 3rd week onwards IgG reaches a sensitivity of about 94%.
The IgG antibody tests were recorded in the following periods: /15
Conclusion:
The thesis that excess mortality is a consequence of a lockdown has been refuted. The regression line intersects the X-axis, i.e. there is no excess mortality where there are no infections. /16
I was amazed at how close the data points were to the regression lines despite the simple processing.
It would be better to invest a little more effort and use the daily accumulated excess mortality in the same time interval as Y-values. /17
IMHO: The lockdown in Spain has saved many thousands of lives. Nevertheless, I am of the same opinion as Tomas Pueyo. Because of the second wave, a new nationwide lockdown is currently not necessary in Spain or anywhere else in Europe. /18
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RT @tomaspueyo
What's going on in Europe? Is there a 2nd wave? What can we expect in the coming weeks? Thread.
Europe had a terrible 1st wave, beat it at the beginning of the summer, but wasn't…
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1302215472415297536
Thread in 18 parts 👆
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If you prefer to read the results of the Spanish epidemiological study in English, here is an article in The Lancet:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
In the following, I have investigated how the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in the different parts of Spain correlates with the associated excess mortality rate. /8