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"Outside of Wuhan, no evidence was found of any significant increase in overall mortality, suggesting the success of the rapid control of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in addition to appropriate maintenance of healthcare services during the nationwide lockdown."
In this thread I will use travel data to show that the lockdown was too late for this to have been possible.
I will further show that this study uses distorted graphs making the lockdown look like it occurred earlier than it really did.
Liu J, Zhang L, Yan Y, Zhou Y, Yin P, Qi J et al.
Excess mortality in Wuhan city and other parts of China during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak: findings from nationwide mortality registries
BMJ 2021; 372 :n415
doi:10.1136/bmj.n415
The Wuhan lockdown occurred on January 23rd 2020, which happened to be the peak travel day for "the worlds largest annual migration" - the Lunar New Year.
Data from Baidu shows that the peak travel day is 2 days before the lunar new year.
There's a lot to unpack in these images, but the dates on the x axis of the selected graph are for the year 2024, and the years 2023 and 2019 are lined up by the lunar calendar rather than by date.
The peak travel day is the same all three years.
In 2024 the Lunar New Year fell on February 10th and the peak travel day was February 8th.
In 2020 the Lunar New Year fell on January 25th, and the expected peak travel day would have been on January 23rd.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/lunar-new-year
