Bluesky is going to skyrocket to mainstream popularity and actually replace Twitter, and Mastodon cannot, because Bluesky is being designed to be simple, fun, and — most importantly — easy to understand.
Bluesky, in both word (stated intentions) and deed (the nascent service as it stands today), aspires to be a better Twitter. An idealized Twitter, perhaps. It even looks just like Twitter — without all the crap.
Mastodon was created by and for people who wanted something different from Twitter. So when Twitter refugees show up, it doesn’t feel familiar. Because it’s not supposed to.
@gruber that's all true but it doesn't follow that Mastodon's approach is a good one, it just means it's different. Different isn't always good or better. We know Blueskye has a very good chance of working because twitter worked (before Musk) and as you say they are doing a better version of twitter. Mastodon on the other hand has so many rough edges and deficiencies that if it doesn't adapt it has a large chance of being the next Ping or Google+.
