imdef @imdef@qoto.org

Researcher bias:

“Bias can neither be created nor destroyed; it may only be converted from one form to another!”

The “law of the conservation of bias,” as discussed in our recent article on the advantages of exploratory hypothesis testing (Rubin & Donkin, 2022).

Open access: https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2022.2113771

#psychology
#philosophyofscience

A mathematical (not political) post on forecasting, uncertainty, and martingales.
A few years back, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Nate Silver had a fierce debate about how to forecast uncertain events like elections. There are some interesting general principles here worth thinking about. The thrust of NNT's point was that Silver's 538 forecast was too volatile through time — it wiggled too much to be a "good" forecast. Why does this matter?