imdef @imdef@qoto.org

#LongCovid #chronicillness estimates in Sweden during the pandemic

"14% corresponding to 1.1 million Swedes said that they have a long-term illness that is not a confirmed chronic illness, of these 500,000 Swedes have been ill with the same illness for more than 12 months. Of these who have been ill the longest, 100,000 state that the disease severely limits their lives. 300,000 that it partially limits their lives."

https://novus.se/egnaundersokningar-arkiv/coronastatus-langtidscovid/

Italy is now home to another famous Leonardo! 💻
Meet Europe's new #Supercomputer — the 4th most powerful in the world.

Capable of 250 million billion calculations per second, Leonardo will enable scientific breakthroughs in health, climate, and clean energy technologies.

Find out more: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_7119

#DigitalEU

What counts as a lie?

True claims that imply something misleading can if people detect
(a) an intention to deceive
(b) the implied deception

Making those two features explicit significantly increased the degree to which people rated statements a lie (N = 222 Prolific workers who viewed 15 vignettes each), confirming prior work.

So those features seem crucial (albeit not sufficient) for a statement to be a lie.

https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/anac037

#ethics #CogSci #xPhi #MoralPsychology #SocialPsychology

Less uncertainty about uncertainty... Maybe?

When people see there’s a lot of uncertainty around science, how do people take it? Does it inspire trust, or the reverse?

There's some new evidence, so I've dug into it, & the previous evidence about a typology of uncertainties.

Plus Medicine in the Media training for journalists is back!, minimizing bias in animal studies, & more:

https://hildabastian.substack.com/p/less-uncertainty-about-uncertainty

#Uncertainty #SciComm

Q: Was that your biggest mistake as chief scientist—not calling #SARSCoV2 #airborne?
A: We should have done it much earlier, based on the available evidence, and it is something that has cost the organization. …

I talked to Soumya Swaminathan, the #WHO‘s chief scientist, who is leaving the agency at the end of this month.

https://www.science.org/content/article/who-s-departing-chief-scientist-regrets-errors-debate-over-whether-sars-cov-2-spreads

‘Labour advantage’ drives greater productivity at elite universities https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03784-4

"The sun weighs about 2,000 quettagrams."

"Ohhhh, now I totally get it."

The world generates so much data that new unit measurements were created to keep up.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/19/1137985619/metric-system-measurement-prefix

Snott av kompis:

He börje ve kallvere, kallsneggen, snödrivern, snödrevan, svallisn, blankisn, tjälasmälln, frusefile, nageltjälln, kallföttren, örstyngen, kallsnarn å hurrven!
Sen vänte klobbsnön, ovarnevattne, blåkasasnön, skarpskaran, slaskföre, blötskon å grannvere.
Sen vart he tjälabränna, tjälamyggen, tjälabrytn, småfågla, ogräse, kallvattne, solskine, bremsn, å anne åt.
Snart hava ve swidarn, bärplockninga, pärgrävninga, höstsola, kallregne å kallblåstn.
Sen böre he om ve kallvere.

Researcher bias:

“Bias can neither be created nor destroyed; it may only be converted from one form to another!”

The “law of the conservation of bias,” as discussed in our recent article on the advantages of exploratory hypothesis testing (Rubin & Donkin, 2022).

Open access: https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2022.2113771

#psychology
#philosophyofscience

A mathematical (not political) post on forecasting, uncertainty, and martingales.
A few years back, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Nate Silver had a fierce debate about how to forecast uncertain events like elections. There are some interesting general principles here worth thinking about. The thrust of NNT's point was that Silver's 538 forecast was too volatile through time — it wiggled too much to be a "good" forecast. Why does this matter?