@LesleyBarnett@sigmoid.social I think the second possibility is more probable (humans don't have to be conscious), even though all humans (with functioning brains) are probably conscious.

All humans are probably conscious because (if consciousness is an emergent phenomenon) two identical brains must both either have consciousness or not. Our brains are very similar thus it makes sense we are both conscious.

If consciousness is fundamental then I could imagine two identical brains where one has that *something* fundamental while the other does not.
In the fundamental case, it is obvious that humans wouldn't have to be conscious.
In the emergent case, a brain capable of emergent consciousness can only be conscious. It would be impossible for consciousness to not emerge from such a brain, so it would make no sense to ask if it would behave in the same way if it were conscious-less.

I think the choices in the poll (causal or noncausal and fundamental or emergent) are clearer than the two possibilities.
Where would you place consciousness on the map I constructed? That would help me understand your position.