pies @pies@qoto.org

So, now even Vladimir Putin himself said it loud and clear that there can't be any "peace" until his 'special military operation' against Ukraine, which is about to enter the third year, finally meets its 'initial goals.'

Yes, it's the same vague 'de-Nazification,' 'demilitarization,' and 'the 'neutral status' of Ukraine.

Let me translate this from the Kremlin newspeak into the language of human beings for you:

- An unconditional surrender of Ukraine. Complete cessation of all forms of armed resistance to Russia's occupational forces.
- Complete disarmament dismissal of Ukrainian armed forces as 'illegal formations.' Termination of all Western defense and economic aid. The removal of all Western-provided weapons (or even their acquisition by Russia as a sort of 'contribution' for the 'Western aggression against Russia in Ukraine,' along with Ukraine's Soviet-made weaponry.
- Russian occupation of at least most of Ukraine's territory (possibly except for western oblasts, but not necessarily - Putin's appetite may be fully encouraged to seize Lviv as well). And in light of the laughable sham 'referendums' of 2022 and the formal Anschluss of Ukrainian regions that the Kremlin does not even fully control - nothing stops Putin from not only demanding that Ukraine gives up to "the new territorial reality" but simply annexing the entire the rest of Ukraine via new 'referendums' with 99% of 'yes' votes. Who needs just a 'pro-Russian puppet regime' in Kyiv when the insanity has gone beyond all limits imaginable?
- Sweeping 'filtration procedures' regarding the entire Ukrainian population (yes, just like what happened at Russian filtration camps in occupied Donbas). The manhunt for all pro-Ukrainian citizens (a.k.a. 'Nazis'), including activists, civilian volunteers, those who ever sent or collected donations for the Ukrainian military, non-defecting officials, just ordinary people who want to be a Ukrainian in an independent free Ukrainian country, non-surrendering Ukrainan soldiers and officers (a.k.a. 'Nazi war criminals') etc etc etc. Naturally, also a widespread crackdown on the Ukrainian identity and civil liberties (a.k.a 're-education'), concentration camps, a harsh occupational regime, anti-guerilla warfare, etc etc etc.
- All sanctions and limitations lifted immediately (of course).
Russia getting full access to Ukraine's resources (especially food production), its geographic position in Europe, infrastructure etc.
- In case of no formal annexation taking place, a puppet 'Ukraine' joining 'the union state' of Russia & Belarus, as well as the 'customs union' and, in the long run, also the CSTO ('Russia's NATO') if it manages to create a form of a collaborationist 'military' on the model of 'people's militias' of the 'DNR' and the 'LNR'.

How do you like such 'peace'? Would you accept that for your loved ones behind your back who have already seen Russian-made mass graves and cities leveled to ashes?

In the shorter run, Putin might demand that Ukraine 'accept the status quo' (i.e., recognize the annexation of Kherson, Crimea, Zaporizhia, and Donbas) and then leave itself totally defenseless and broke without Western aid - in exchange for Putin giving Jack's shit.

Guess what happens next if today's masters of escalation management force Ukraine into such a 'peace for our time' under Putin's terms.

It's a complete mystery why those silly Ukrainians just don't see that as a possible option.

It's not a fucking soccer championship ('well, you will lose, but it's not the end of the word, really...').

It's about a 40-million European nation and a democracy that does not deserve to die in a pit with a bullet in the back of its head because the wealthiest and the most powerful community of nations in the history of mankind was too obsessed with petty politics and phobias.

The elimination and subjugation of Ukraine is Vladimir Putin's lifetime project, which he has pursued in various forms since the very beginning of his rule in the early 2000s.

It is especially personal now that Putin's easy-cheezy triumphal march to Kyiv turned into a 2-year-long bloodbath with a long list of insanely humiliating defeats and blows upon Russia's imperial pride.

He will not leave Ukraine be unless he is made to. Or unless he loses power or dies.

Oh, by the way, do I have to say that the fall of Ukraine means the Russian military being empowered with Ukrainian resources and standing at the gates of Central Europe?

Putin can formally stay in power until at least 2036. And before and after that, he and his successors in the Kremlin will be knowing that war, territorial grabs, and nuclear intimidation do work.

That the West will do little to nothing in response. And that war works perfectly well to keep their power over Russia consolidated as long as the 'besieged fortress' combats 'the entire NATO' in a new 'global confrontation of superpowers.'

THEY NEED WARS. AGAIN and AGAIN.

So, really, the ONLY way to put this to an end in Ukraine is to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to defeat the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler.

To render the Russian war in Ukraine so critically costly and failing that it will make Putin seek a way out of it, with Ukraine & the West speaking from the position of power in negotiations.

And (which is also extremely important) to keep Ukraine, its eastern European allies, and NATO itself strong and resilient enough to keep Russia deterred and contained.

Putin will stop where and when he's made to. Not by begging, not by giving him a chance to save face, or by appealing to his common sense or ethics, or by trying to please him into not siding with China in a future confrontation with the United States.

The free world's obsession with escalation management, lack of leadership, half-hearted measures, and reluctance to go beyond its comfort zone do not work. Giving Ukraine a handful of missiles and tanks for such a large-scale war against Russia and then hoping for a miracle to happen at a low price also doesn't work.

The free world has already given Putin TWO YEARS to unfold Russia's military production and adapt itself to sanctions.

We all know how many tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died as the West keeps waiting for heaven knows what, making the solution increasingly costly.

Other products by the I Can't Believe It's Not Butter people:

- You Thought This Was Yogurt
- Fuck Off It's Mayonnaise
- It's Probably Corn
- Surprise Motherfucker That Wasn't Hummus
- No One Said This Was Ham
- I Hope These Aren't Hornets