(ENSO update)
as of tonight, 2000Hrs, 03May2023, the needle is now pointing at an alert status
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Recent conditions and model forecasts indicate that El Niño may emerge in the coming season (June-July-August) at 80% probability and may persist until the first quarter of 2024. (updated 02 May 2023)
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https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/el-nino-la-nina/monitoring
to cite from NOAA paper and in my own comprehension, the oscillation has developed and in the upward trend in terms of sea surface temperatures-sst
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In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in the eastern and western Pacific Ocean and were near average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
(to cite again from that paper and in my own comprehension, nature's cooling system over the equatorial pacific is somewhat becoming deficient)
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However, low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident in the first half of March associated with subseasonal activity. Suppressed convection was evident over the central tropical Pacific and over parts of Indonesia (Fig. 5).
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
wait... just for a musical break we do need the four strong winds to cool things down but i think climate change has done damage to earth's convection system but just my own hunch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85haYlPbPmA
just taking hints from electronics on how oscillation would happen: what is needed basically is positive feedback that is, a portion of the output that gets fed back to the input and closed loop gain is developed so as to add to the strength of the output in turn this would add more strength to the portion that is being fed back to input thus, reinforcing furthermore the output so on, so forth thus oscillation is sustained and not all oscillations are useful some of it destructive of the system
so the basic question is, what is this specific form of the mechanism for a positive feedback? i mean the environmental system of the equatorial and southern pacific or the whole pacific
... and mind it that there are runaway destructive oscillations
(about the song, i just remember one cool noon when alice and i were in a mall, in the diner section, having lunch, airconditioning was just right and this song was in the background later we would watch movie to enjoy more airconditioning in short magpalamig pa more)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHNcIZ24i1M
(again to cite from a NOAA paper and somewhat worrying is the rise of subsurface temperatures)
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Area-averaged subsurface temperatures also increased over the past month (Fig. 3), reflecting the dominance of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4).
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf