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El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter
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https://www.wqcs.org/wqcs-news/2023-06-08/noaa-declares-the-arrival-of-el-nino
Follow
reaching 1.2, take note of that
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Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3),
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
and remember
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The 1.5C figure has become a symbol of global climate change negotiations. Countries agreed to "pursue efforts" to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C under the 2015 Paris agreement.
Going over 1.5C every year for a decade or two would see far greater impacts of warming, such as longer heatwaves, more intense storms and wildfires.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65602293