+++ No Collateral Excess Mortality Due to Lockdown

Thread in 18 parts

From Corona deniers you can hear again and again that one does not die FROM but WITH Corona. According to this there should not be any excess mortality. /1

When the real existing excess mortality could no longer be denied, it was claimed to be a consequence of the corona measures. They said these deaths were mainly a consequence of the lockdown. /2

There would be more suicides and deaths due to postponed medical examinations, neglected elderly care, etc. Some also claim that people have died out of sheer panic.

In the following I will refute this collateral damage thesis using the example of Spain. /3

Why Spain?

1. there was a huge excess mortality in Spain
2. Spain had the strictest lockdown in Europe

The points 1. and 2. seem to confirm the collateral damage thesis. /4

63% excess mortality in Spain between 11 March and 9 May 2020:

Further reasons for Spain as a study object,

3. there is a large antibody study that shows how high the incidence of infection was in the different parts of the country.

4. the lockdown started everywhere in Spain at the same time and was equally strict everywhere. /5

The lockdown began on the 14th March and came to an end with the nationwide start of Phase 0 of the 4-phase plan on the 9th May. The end of the lockdown proceeded differently in the individual parts of the country, so that no comparative studies are possible after may 9th. /6

If the collateral damage hypothesis would be correct, then the level of excess mortality would be independent of the occurrence of infection. /7

In the following, I have investigated how the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in the different parts of Spain correlates with the associated excess mortality rate. /8