my theory is that the Biden Administration demanded an early debate precisely so there would be time for a change of course if his candidacy came to seem untenable.
@interfluidity A lot of people are saying that, but Occam's Razor is that they're simply making the same mistake Hillary did in 2016 and vastly underestimating their opponent.
> there are also a lot of very brilliant, more detached people associated with this administration
With the administration? Yes. With the campaign? I'm not so sure.
@LouisIngenthron i guess i’m crediting the administration with some influence over this.
@LouisIngenthron i’d characterize that mistake, in either case, more as overestimating themselves. and i don’t doubt that there’s a lot of that! but there are also a lot of very brilliant, more detached people associated with this administration, and i think they might have considered the contingencies. prediction markets now have Biden’s nomination at 60-ish percent. which sounds about right to me.