國家機密: 不能說的消失人數.

"根據2019年湖北省國民經濟社會發展公報,湖北省2019年的常住人口是5927萬人,戶籍人口數是6177萬人,但第七次人口普查公佈的湖北省常住人口卻是5775萬人,中間短少了至少152萬人,請問這些人去哪了?"

facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=52

七普都不給整理好的表格, WSJ也只能講已知的.

"The data showed a sharp rise in the percentage of Chinese aged 60 and above, to 18.7% of the population from 13.3% in 2010.

The portion of Chinese aged between 15 and 59 stood at 63.35% in 2020, down from 70.1% in 2010."

"A research report released late last year by the China Population and Development Research Center, a government think tank, predicted that China’s population will peak in 2027 at 1.417 billion. That is three years earlier than what Beijing had predicted in 2017. It isn’t clear whether further revisions will be necessary after the census results."

wsj.com/articles/china-says-it

蘋果日報報導了微博那篇七普分析文:

"文章作者翻查資料,去年滿65歲的民眾都是1955年出生,當年的出生率不是增長,而是比往年驟降的,只有2,004萬人出生,相關數字完全不吻合,亦即有逾千萬的老年「幽靈」人口。還有一點更離奇的,根據官方公布的人口淨增長數據,2020年死亡人數是1,461萬人,比2019年的945萬,足足增加了接近500萬人,亦是創了改革開放以來的紀錄。"

tw.appledaily.com/internationa

另篇分析七普文:

"2020年底,相比2019年底人口总数暴增1173万人。(创20年来人口自然增长率新高。)

国家统计局局长宁吉喆在答记者问中表示,2020年出生人口为1200万人。(创60年来人口出生数量新低。)"

[ 而在过去的十年中,人口的死亡数量几乎恒定在950万至1000万之间,2019年为998万。

今天公布的人口总数,可以推算出2020年人口自然增长1173万人,出生人口为1200万人,那么2020年死亡人口数量仅有27万人?

如果一个14亿大国,一年死亡人口只有27万的话,那么真可以套用某“叫兽”在描述武汉新冠肺炎死亡人数的时候用的那句话:“那就等于没死人”。]

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CNFub-UBbZ0

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人口老化與少子化的衝擊:

“Some even dared to butt against and challenge superiors when they were not happy. The military was forced to adjust. Some military instructors tell me they are still muddling through how to take charge of younger generations.”

“Rather than only orders and scolding, therapy sessions by professional psychotherapists have been brought in since 2011 to ease stress, according to military mouthpiece The PLA Daily.”

scmp.com/news/china/military/a

慢性雪上加霜:

「傑富瑞金融集團(Jefferies Financial Group)分析師包爾(Simon Powell)等人今年8月報告分析,中國2021年出生人口數量可能降到至少1950年以來最低水準;2021年上半年中國部分地區的新生兒數量可能比2020年同期下降了17%,如果這個降幅擴展至全中國,意味著2021年新生兒數量可能存在降至1000萬以下的風險。

美國經濟學家哈瑞丹特在2014年精裝書出版的《人口懸崖》提出,相較政府政策和金融市場變動等因素,人口趨勢更能決定一國經濟快速成長和繁榮週期何時到來、維繫多久,但當人口紅利消失時,不可避免促成蕭條、經濟跳下懸崖。

哈瑞丹特預測,中國勞動力增長會在2015至2025年達峰值,隨後開始滑落,人口將會在2025年面臨下降的轉捩點,在2025年之後的下一次全球繁榮初期時跌落人口懸崖,屆時將是中國債務、房地產泡沫加速破滅的根本原因;中國經濟未來面臨考驗,由於激進人口政策,下一代人消費能力下降,過高房價和債務有可能讓問題變得更嚴峻。」

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

中國從過去強制墮胎的一胎化到今日盛行人工受孕的少子化:

"The number of Chinese newborns fell 18% in 2020 from the year before, and data expected in January is likely to show another steep drop in 2021. China’s fertility rate—the number of children a woman has over her lifetime—already dropped below replacement levels in the early 1990s and in 2020 came in at 1.3, below even Japan’s 1.34. After dipping to a record low of 1.26 in 2005, Japan’s fertility rate, among the world’s lowest, began to recover with the help of support measures by the government, though in recent years, the rate has started falling again."

wsj.com/articles/china-is-haun

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