Pinned toot

很高興將手機最後存照貼上來,當作本帳號停用倒數計時。暫無另起爐灶打算,這篇便權充告別貼文。到02/22都還會上來貼文或回應,之後就山水有相逢吧。謝謝大家的關注與交流,祝諸君 順心如意,平安喜樂~

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在俄羅斯出兵烏克蘭東部的此際,上一輪美台中真正交戰成了眼下的前車之鑑:

"在王景弘先生的新書中也顯示杜勒斯注意到中國當時只有大砲轟擊,沒有出動飛機,更沒有試圖派軍隊進攻金門,因此美方認為中方雖然當時提到佔領金門後就跟著要解放台灣,但因為以上跡象,所以得到中共對金門炮擊的目的主要是發送政治訊號,沒有軍事侵占的意圖。也因為八二三炮戰,使得原先艾森豪政府的「戰略模糊」政策失去說服力,認為正是「戰略模糊」導致中國意圖以砲戰來測試美國的決心與意圖。

對台灣的防衛策略規劃者而言,需要預期,或合理期待美方可以協助台灣做到什麼程度時,理解美國思考其對台對應的框架與背景,包括美國本身具有什麼力量、對台灣國際法地位的定位,美國利益的定義及其對美國區域盟邦的關係等,就會變得很關鍵。鑒於台海情勢日益緊張,因此50年代有關《中美同防禦條約》的方方面面,以及分析美國在1954、1958兩次金門炮戰是採取什麼態度在思考與對應,就會是非常重要的歷史參照。"

opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile

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「回首半生,青衫人老,在漫長的人生中有開心時候,困難日子也不少,人生大概都是失意倍多如意少。」

「人生這兩個字,就是歡聲、淚影四個字砌成,沒有甚麼奇怪。任何人無論昨日幾風光,也無論昨日幾失意,明日天光,同樣要起身做回一個人,繼續生活下去,明天總比昨天好,這個就是人生!」

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2022022201

WSJ這篇進一步剖析了普丁或者說俄羅斯政權的心理陰影:

"The Russian leader is trying to stop further enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, whose expansion he sees as encroaching on Russia’s security and part of the West’s deception and broken promises. He wants NATO to scale back its military reach to the 1990s, before it expanded east of Germany. The demands would reverse many of the extraordinary changes in Europe that took place in that decade.

In sum, Mr. Putin seeks to undo many of the security consequences of the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, an event the Russian leader has called the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.

Given that the past century encompassed two world wars, the Holocaust and much else, Mr. Putin’s superlative is revealing. It reflects what he saw at close hand in the 1990s: the collapse of the Soviet empire, Moscow’s reliance on the West for handouts as its economy went into free fall and his country’s internal chaos. The West, meanwhile, trumpeted its Cold War victory."

wsj.com/articles/putins-endgam

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半年後的揭曉:

[ Analysts expected a boost of about $1.4 billion from the net release of expected credit losses over the year, but in the fourth quarter, HSBC budgeted a fresh $450 million for likely credit losses, saying those largely reflected “recent developments in China’s commercial real-estate sector.” ]

wsj.com/articles/hsbcs-profit-

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終於拿上個世紀簽署的布達佩斯安全保障備忘錄出來吵了,事實證明共產黨政權簽約都能隨時不認帳的:

"蘇聯解體後烏克蘭繼承了一個重要的核武庫。但是在1994年烏克蘭、俄羅斯、美國和英國簽署了布達佩斯備忘錄,鑒於烏克蘭加入不擴散核武器條約這個備忘錄是安全保障的國際協議。根據協議,烏克蘭的核武庫被取消,核大國承諾保證烏克蘭的安全。"

big5.sputniknews.cn/amp/202202

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陸軍各種花甲武器終於可以退休啦...

"根據資料,美國援助台灣的首批46輛M41華克猛犬(Walker Bulldog)戰車,於民國47年10月運抵基隆港,開啟這型經典傳奇戰車在台服役歷程,成為國軍裝甲部隊主力,台灣最多曾操作700多輛M41A3,直到M60A3、CM11及CM12等戰車服役後才逐漸交棒。

經過性能提升後的M41D戰車,目前仍在金門烈嶼擔任第一線戰備任務。"

cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202202220

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隨著胖胖歐即將訪台, 台美中的糾葛也重新被檢視:

"2月26日晚10點,國家安全顧問季辛吉在杭州緊急約見中國外交部副部長喬冠華,提出羅吉斯對「一中政策」表述的三點修改意見:第一,把「在臺灣海峽兩邊的所有中國人都認為只有一個中國」一句中的「所有中國人」改為「中國人」;第二,把「對這一立場不提出異議」中的「立場」刪掉;第三,「它重申它對由中國人自己和平解決臺灣問題的關心」一句中,在「中國人」前面加上一個定語——「臺灣海峽兩岸的」。喬冠華向周恩來總理請示後態度強硬地表示,這份尼克森首肯的草案,也已經在2月26日清晨獲得毛澤東主席的批准,但美方卻又提出這麼多重大的修改,若美方堅持這些修改意見,那麼,這份「上海公報」恐怕難以按時完成並簽署。喬冠華痛罵季辛吉竟然暗示在臺灣有人可能不會認同自己是中國人、或是不覺得臺灣是中國的一部分。季辛吉退讓了,有關美國「一中政策」的表述沒有做任何改變。2月28日,雙方在上海正式發表了這份公報。"

fountmedia.io/article/144684

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澳洲成為金融時報以外的美國放話點:

"艾波特舉例,英國和美國僅向烏克蘭提供反坦克和地對空飛彈,但並未派兵支援;德國連制裁俄羅斯的意願都沒有;法國主張修改烏克蘭憲法以便滿足俄羅斯的要求;目前只有烏克蘭在抵擋俄羅斯。"

"艾波特指出,以自由和人道為基礎的世界秩序已經受威脅,這和第二次世界大戰前的情況雷同。艾波特舉例,蒲亭和中國國家主席習近平2月初發表俄、中推進「新時代國際關係」聯合聲明,強調要「超越冷戰時期的軍事政治同盟關係模式」。就是要與北約及美國在日本和南韓駐軍的模式較勁;換言之,是要對抗美國所支持以自由和人道為基礎的世界秩序。"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202220

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從美聯社的報導研判, 目前雙方實際動手不多, 主要還是政治操作為主:

"While separatists have charged that Ukrainian forces were firing on residential areas, Associated Press journalists reporting from several towns and villages in Ukrainian-held territory along the line of contact have not witnessed any notable escalation from the Ukrainian side and have documented signs of intensified shelling by the separatists that destroyed homes and ripped up roads.

Some residents of the main rebel-held city of Donetsk described sporadic shelling by Ukrainian forces, but they added that it wasn’t on the same scale as earlier in the conflict."

apnews.com/article/russia-ukra

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衛報將普丁這場國安會議大戲戲肉做了分析:

[ Sergei Naryshkin, the hawkish head of Russia’s spy service, known for making aggressively anti-western statements, stuttered uncomfortably as Putin grilled him on whether he supported the decision.

“Speak directly!” Putin snapped, twice.

Eventually, when he was able to get the words out, Naryshkin said he supported “the LNR and DNR becoming part of Russia.” Putin told him that wasn’t the subject of the discussion; it was only recognition being weighed up.

Some suggested this might have been a carefully scripted encounter to show the West what other options might be available, but Naryshkin’s genuinely flustered expression suggested otherwise. ]

theguardian.com/world/2022/feb

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早上看俄新社新聞時頗感慨: 沒看過國家剛獨立時揮舞的是鄰國國旗的....

"Groups of people gathered in the streets, displaying Russia’s flags and cheering Moscow’s move, another video shows."

rt.com/russia/550172-donetsk-l

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北約諸國武裝廢弛,何足懼哉? 莫斯科真正忌憚的是英美:

"北約規定成員遭第三方入侵時,全體成員將共同對抗,美軍還可駐軍北約盟國並部署武器。據波蘭國防部的資料,目前波蘭境內約駐有4000名美軍和1000名其他北約部隊;波羅的海三小國境內的北約駐軍也有約4000人。

若烏克蘭與另一前蘇聯加盟共和國喬治亞加入北約,西方盟國及美軍形同可直接與俄國接壤,莫斯科視此為存亡大事,要求北約斷不可納入烏克蘭與喬治亞,並要給出具約束力的法律保證,但美國與盟國則堅持北約的開放原則,拒絕俄國的要求,"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202220

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資深小弟白羅斯都這樣說了....

"白俄羅斯國防部長赫列寧(Viktor Khrenin)於20日表示:「由於俄白邊境地區的軍事活動趨於活躍,烏克蘭東部局勢正在惡化,因此兩國總統決定將繼續檢驗部隊。」他宣布,演習結束後俄軍也不會撤軍,會在當地停留。"

www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/zt/new

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頓巴斯地區的頓內次克與盧甘斯克若接著加入俄羅斯聯邦,北約成員恐怕要正式面對東歐戰場的可能性了:

"Deciding to recognize the two territories in Donbas would likely grant the Kremlin greater sway over these regions, already proxies of Moscow, and hand Mr. Putin an additional trump card in negotiations in his current standoff with the West.

Russia’s Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, will consider the move to recognize the breakaway regions at a closed meeting Tuesday, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported, a necessary move to formalize the decrees under Russian law."

wsj.com/articles/russia-allege

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倆小弟認老大的十年賣身契:

"The 31-point treaties also say Russia and the breakaway statelets will work to integrate their economies. Both of them are former industrial areas in need of massive support to rebuild after eight years of war with Ukrainian government forces.

The 10-year treaties are automatically renewable for further five-year periods unless one of the parties gives notice to withdraw."

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傀儡前鋒:

"頓內茨克和盧甘斯克共和國允許俄羅斯可在當地建立軍事基地,並就互相保護、軍事合作以及邊界認定等達成協議,其中邊界認定相當關鍵,因為兩「共和國」所聲稱的邊界有部分地區處於烏克蘭控制之下,俄軍恐為其拿下這些地區的控制權。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

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普丁大帝用"歷史一部分"中國絕招正式舉起出兵大旗~

[ “The situation in Donbas is becoming critical,” Mr. Putin said of the eastern area of Ukraine, where the two breakaway regions are located. “Ukraine is not just a neighbor. It is an inherent part of our own history, culture and spiritual space,” he said. ]

wsj.com/articles/russia-allege

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趙君朔對美國民主黨智庫新美國安全研究中心(CNAS)報告出爐後台積電後續動作的分析:

"一方面可以具體評估資料,溫和地提醒對岸在全世界晶片不分高低階產能都吃緊的狀況下,生產本地化即使是由非本國籍的廠商來做也是求之不得的好事。一方面也該私下聯絡美國官方,表示台積電不該為了遵守美國的制裁變成代罪羔羊,要請負責和中共貿易談判的美國貿易代表署將中共以各種理由打壓外商的行為列入紀錄,並在台積電自己隱身幕後的情況下由美國政府幫忙出面暗示美方正密切關注中共是否有更多的不公平商業行為,將列入雙方後續檢討第一階段貿易協議的重要參考,以嚇阻中共得寸進尺。"

voicettank.org/%E7%95%B6%E6%99

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興票案爆出來後就停用了啊.... :blobcatmorningcoffee:

"根據OCCRP報告內容,宋楚瑜(James Soong Chu-yu)1993年在瑞士信貸銀行開戶,該戶頭中最高餘額曾達瑞士法郎1367萬7418元(約新臺幣4億1515萬元),一直到2010年該戶頭才停止運作。"

news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/

德中關係那麼好,叫中國分給親中代表福斯用啊 ~

"AFS最新數據顯示,晶片短缺導致歐洲汽車組裝廠額外取消37,900輛生產計劃、今年迄今產量累計縮減180,900輛。福斯(Volkswagen AG)德國狼堡(Wolfsburg)組裝廠今年迄今產量因晶片相關衝擊累計縮減70,300輛、高居全球之冠。"

moneydj.com/kmdj/news/newsview

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