頗懷疑這時候放出金融穩定法風聲，是為了接下來的違約潮與更嚴苛的資金管制做準備。前者可能是不認帳或轉移損失，後者可能是將各方面資金限制檯面化降低流動。
"中國銀行央行副行長劉桂平也在3月的1篇文章敦促改革，他指出，中國的金融規則過於分散，可以借鑑美國的《多德—弗蘭克法案》及其他主要經濟體的金融改革經驗。劉桂平認為，中國需要一致的金融穩定法。
劉桂平已向全國人大呈交提案，並建議在條件成熟時盡快出台。但北京威諾律師事務所合夥人Yang Zhaoquan指出，完成這項法案可能得花上3到5年的時間，他稱，由於風險事件接連出現，不僅損害市場，還波及金融及社會穩定性，因此迫切需要更多且強大法律工具。
《彭博》指出，像共產黨這樣執著於「掌控」的政府，在監管金融機構的行為似乎不太一致，一方面是疏忽對華融的監管，導致該公司爆發財務危機，一方面卻又警告像螞蟻集團這樣的公司影響力過大。"
中國巨型企業遭遇國有化威脅的同時, 逃過倒閉潮的倖存小型企業則面臨金流不足的危機.
"Close to 19% of China’s small businesses shut down last year, compared with 6.7% in 2019, according to a study released in March by Tsinghua University involving more than 50,000 companies nationwide."
"While the insolvency rate is expected to be better this year, many companies still face serious cash-flow constraints. A survey of more than 10,000 small businesses released in March by Peking University and Ant Group Co. found that 15% have sufficient cash flow to sustain operations for six months or longer, down from 19% in the third quarter of 2020, though some expect revenue to pick up as the year progresses."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-small-businesses-life-is-still-far-from-normal-11619953204
螞蟻這種鉅企都讓外資股東面臨相當風險了，遑論其他。
"The global investors, which also included private-equity firms, sovereign-wealth funds and pension plans, were on the cusp of reaping a massive windfall last fall. Now, it is far from certain that those investors will end up making a profit and they can’t easily sell their investments until the company revives its plans to go public again, which could be years away. "
螞蟻這隻金雞母被取卵後的損傷統計:
[ For the quarter ended in March, Alibaba’s net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.5 billion yuan, equivalent to $836 million, compared with a net income of 3.2 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. Its sales rose 64% to 187.4 billion yuan, equivalent to about $28.6 billion, beating analyst expectations.
In April, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation levied a $2.8 billion fine against Alibaba, equal to 4% of the company’s domestic annual sales. The regulator said its investigation, launched in December, found that the company punished certain merchants who sold goods both on Alibaba and on rival platforms, a practice known as “er xuan yi”—literally, “choose one out of two.”]
外媒注意到了中國監管機構對數據庫應用獲利的壓縮與鼓勵舉報的政策:
"The admonitions have so far stopped short of demanding complete corporate overhauls, other than for Ant. For some companies, placating Chinese authorities is a matter of tweaking some app features, while others could suffer more if much of their profits rely on data collection and sharing, according to employees of five of the app companies targeted by regulators last month."
法院認證的用戶數據外洩:
"《彭博》報導，1家幫助淘寶賣家的營銷顧問公司，其1名員工自2019年以來私下抓取了超過10億個包括用戶名和電話號碼在內的敏感用戶數據，用於為其他客戶提供服務。"
再次以數據為藉口的打擊數位產業:
"On Monday, China’s Cybersecurity Review Office, which falls under the Cyberspace Administration of China, said it launched a data-security probe into the apps Yunmanman, Huochebang and Boss Zhipin. It said the review is aimed at preventing national data security risks, maintaining national security and protecting public interests."
🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️～
“這封日期為6月25日的信函，由設於新加坡的亞洲互聯網聯盟（Asia Internet Coalition）發出。這個聯盟由臉書、谷歌和推特等網路平台業者和主要科技公司組成。
華爾街日報報導，信中表示：「科技企業要避免遭受這些懲罰的唯一途徑，就是不要在香港進行投資和提供服務。」”
外資的自由市場邏輯與中共的壟斷市場邏輯無法在香港並存。
"While Hong Kong’s population of about 7.5 million means it isn’t a major market in terms of its user base, foreign firms often cite the free flow of information in Hong Kong as a key factor for being located in the financial hub."
翻白眼~
"上海東亞研究所助理所長包承柯告訴中央社記者，在「實名制」的時代，中國的手機儲存個人消費、健康等個資，手機的資訊就等於一個人完整的數據；而成千上萬條數據結合起來，就是一個地區完整的訊息，「當然涉及國家安全」。
而滴滴所持有的高精度地圖，和「運滿滿」、「貨車幫」母公司「滿幫集團」擁有的交通及物流訊息，也被視為高度敏感的數據。"
強硬干涉讓資本再度放大中國政治風險影響而傾向脫鉤:
"Also top of mind for IPO bankers and investors who own U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies is whether the new guidelines out of China are only about data, or if they represent a sea change from the country that could lead to companies pulling potential U.S. listings.
Either way, a freeze of the Chinese IPO pipeline seems to be the current state of play: Bankers say any Chinese company that was planning a U.S.-listed IPO in the coming months is likely being shelved for now."
"Both Beijing and Washington have long seen economic engagement as the cornerstone of the two countries’ ties. But the relationship has become so unpredictable over the years that even the drive to make money in each other’s markets no longer works as a unifier."
很多人應該會懷念最後那波繁榮光景吧....
"From 2019 to 2022, Western banks played a big role in a flurry of so-called “homecoming listings” of Alibaba and other tech companies that also sold shares in Hong Kong. They also helped dozens of Chinese banks, property developers, manufacturers and retailers sell more than $700 billion worth of U.S. dollar corporate bonds over the past five years. "
"為何要促使市場有效競爭？首要理由在於，有效競爭等於是在鼓勵創新。
從需求面來看，如果需求固定，競爭必須互相取代，好比在「紅海」內自相殘殺（cannabilization）。創新則因為創造出新的品味或需求，有如開拓新「藍海」，可避免重疊；就供給面而言，創新等於是藉由更有效率的生產方式來降低成本，而且得以服務更多的消費者，因為更多的消費者得以享受原先付不起的消費。
其次，因為生產性或經濟資源有限（稀少性），人們最好還是透過市場競爭來爭取資源，這對整體社會的財富創造比較有利。不然的話就必須藉由政治運作或親疏關係等途徑來從事資源分配，非但沒有效率，而且難以預測。
尋租或競租行為（rent-seeking），講的就是這種浪費社會資源的現象。好比為了職位升遷，大家都拼命送禮給長官，這些送禮行為本身沒有為整體社會貢獻任何產值，也就不具生產力。"
“不要讓韌性或堅韌只成為形容詞，應進一步發展成適合台灣情況並可操作、執行的內容與目標。國防或國家安全當然仍是第一要務，但也必須高度留意是否因為重視這些基本生存問題，以致忽略其他國家目標與價值。此即國家韌性，並和公部門是否具有效率，特別是有無完成原先組織設置的目的密切相關，尤其是攸關經濟治理與管制機關（暱稱人民權益的看門狗／Watchdogs）的效能是否強大最為關鍵，例如競爭法機關。
為什麼呢？因為這些政府組織和經貿、財稅、國發等部門不一樣，通常不是站在第一線，向來並不會受到太多關注，其績效與表現更容易因為整個社會的注意力放在國安上面而被忽略。偏偏在數位時代，管制機關的重要性無以倫比。主要理由在於，數位平台經濟及其所衍生的公平競爭、隱私與詐騙（大數據）、消費者權益等三大問題，已逐漸成為經濟發展和人民權益保障的核心。可惜台灣的管制機關或因為陷入「管制會影響發展的迷思」（兩者實為互補），或面對新興議題面面相覷不知所措（源於價值目標模糊），普遍缺乏能動性（agency） 。”
軟銀孫正義之類的國際投資人再度中槍...
" The sudden regulatory actions, which surprised investors in coming just days after the company’s IPO, suggested that protecting national security trumps Beijing’s ambitions for Chinese corporations to go global. One upshot: Beijing is unlikely to hold fire even if its regulatory moves risk the ability of Chinese firms to court international investors. "
不曉得要用幾折價脫手給CCP?
"《彭博》報導，Alicia Yap 等花旗集團分析師在報告中指出，日本軟銀在阿里巴巴 IPO 之前就押注，因此很大一部分持股未登記為 ADS。花旗計算，軟銀持有阿里巴巴 53.9 億股普通股，相當於 6.7376 億股 ADS，即 24.8% 的股份。
近期，阿里巴巴向美國證券交易委員會提交文件，顯示登記了 10 億份之前未登記的ADS，花旗認為，這意味著軟銀可能計畫拋售部分持股。"
難怪阿共沒理會阿九馬，因為他們正在忙將縮水到四分之一的阿里馬大卸六塊⋯
“Under the restructuring, Alibaba’s various businesses will be split up into six major areas: cloud computing, Chinese e-commerce, global e-commerce, digital mapping and food delivery, logistics, and media and entertainment, the company said Tuesday.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-to-split-into-six-separate-groups-in-biggest-shake-up-9ce2201f
買美股是趁低點撿便宜，買港股則趁機賣個好:
"The purchase sizes aren’t huge — Alibaba’s market capitalization is about $171 billion — but given who is buying, they are likely to be closely followed by investors and policymakers. Alibaba itself bought back $9.5 billion worth of stock last year, reducing its share count by over 3 percent.
這些增持的規模並不大——阿里市值約為1710億美元——但因為身份的特殊性，他們可能會受到投資者和政策制定者的密切關注。阿里去年回購了95億美元股票，使其流通股數量減少超過3%。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240124/jack-ma-alibaba-shares/zh-hant/dual/
一年後終於賣掉八成五的股份啦?...
"「金融時報」分析軟銀提交給美國證券管理委員會（SEC）的文件指出，遠期銷售顯示，軟銀對阿里巴巴持股最終會降至僅3.8%。"
"《彭博》報導，根據港府統計處數據，截至今年6月1日，共有254家美企設駐港地區總部，去年同期為282家，相當於年減10％，是自2003年以來最低，當年的數字為242家。
這些數據也顯示出，中國去年起實施的國安法，正影響香港的國際業務，北京正改變香港過往吸引外資的法治體系。與此同時，中國企業駐港總部數量持續上升，年增約6％至252家，直逼美資公司數量，美中企業分別佔總額17.4％、17.3％。"
專政之下無兩制:
"其中第13條規定，數據處理者從事以下活動，應當按照官方有關規定，申報網路安全審查：包括匯聚掌握大量有關國家安全、經濟發展、公共利益的數據資源的網路平台營運商，在實施合併、重組、分立時，可能影響國家安全；處理100萬人以上個人資料的數據處理者，赴國外上市時；數據處理者赴香港上市時，可能影響國家安全。
此外，大型聯路平台營運商在境外設立總部或運營中心、研發中心時，應當向中國網信部門和主管部門報告。"
不管是京股還是港股，表現都慘兮兮...
"《彭博》數據顯示，今年在募資至少1億美元的企業中，其IPO價格在香港平均下跌近20％。相較之下南韓IPO價格平均上漲近40％、印度則是漲32％。
香港市場最初受到低廉資金和充裕現金帶動IPO熱潮，近期逐漸降溫。雖然今年上半年收益年成長飆升130％，但隨後的幾個月內，受到中國對多個產業的打擊，幾乎沒有大筆的交易出現。"
再次證明外資撤離香港是正確決定~
"The Didi probe is the first publicized by China’s Cybersecurity Review Office, a unit under the internet watchdog. According to measures which came into effect a year ago, companies under review should receive initial results within 45 days, except in complicated cases."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-internet-regulator-finds-serious-problems-with-didi-china-units-app-11625402263?st=qbzz9wxr7d7zqm7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink