"中國在東南亞的長期目標,就是要成為最具主導性的強權(the dominant power),並使所有東南亞國家成為事實上的附庸。這會是一種具有中國特色的「芬蘭化」(Finlandization with Chinese characteristics)。要讓東南亞「芬蘭化」,必得中立化(neutralizing)、先發制人(preempting)、威懾(deterring)和抵制(resisting)該區域對中國的任何批評,並且默許中國對南海主權的主張。"

upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Seria

美國要扭轉這種芬蘭化中國影響力的吃力點在於東南亞政治體質本就介於民主與獨裁之間搖擺動盪:

"At a deeper level, Southeast Asian and American perceptions diverge to varying degrees on the question of exactly what threat China poses. While it fears a future of Chinese hegemony, the region has little appetite for the predominant U.S. view of its competition with China, as part of a global battle between democracy and authoritarianism, a framing that was echoed in the AUKUS announcement."

thediplomat.com/2021/09/what-d

Follow

"An increased economic emphasis does not necessarily mean that the United States and Britain should neglect a military presence, but they should take steps to improve Asian perceptions of trans-Atlantic security cooperation. For policymakers in many Asian countries, it is easy to view AUKUS as a Western maritime coalition seeking to prevent the rise of an emerging Asian nation. Likewise, some argue that India could provide a counterweight to China, but relying too much on India risks alienating its neighbors, incentivizing them to pursue closer ties with China."

thediplomat.com/2021/10/aukus-

Sign in to participate in the conversation
Qoto Mastodon

QOTO: Question Others to Teach Ourselves
An inclusive, Academic Freedom, instance
All cultures welcome.
Hate speech and harassment strictly forbidden.