From "The Analyst":
CHASIV YAR IS NEXT
While Russia gets closer each day to its goal of taking Avdivka before March’s Russian fake president election, its other top of the list goal is Chasiv Yar on top of the hills in front of Bakhmut.
Intelligence sources have clearly identified it as a Russian target for mid March and the Russians have been transferring forces to the area to strengthen their efforts to take it.
This is why the recent Ukrainian counter attack in the area east of the hills took them by surprise and rather upset their own attack on the area at the base of the hills further south.
Ukraine had withdrawn under heavy pressure from a small forested area, and the Russians followed up with heavy armour - something they only do when they think they’re seeing a breakthrough moment these days.
The Ukrainians spoted the delay in the Russians taking advantage of their withdrawal and moved partially back in - they have the advantage of being on higher ground. This resulted in the destruction of half a column of Russian T-90’s and the rest bolted.
Russian activity in the Chasiv Yar area looks set to increase dramatically.
Not only are Ukrainian forces on the high ground but they have a series of prepared defence lines - structures they have learnt from the Russians that can be highly effective in holding back attacks and extracting maximum pain from any enemy troops.
While Russians are unbothered by who dies to achieve a goal, they do seem bothered by the statistics of how many - simply because of the problem of replacing the men that die, not because they care. Any offensive here looks set to be extremely bloody.
There is much discussion as to what to do about Avdivka. Supply lines are in essence cut, and time has to be given to get out of the easternmost areas when it finally happens - it seems inevitable barring some miracle, that something will give in the next week to ten days. But it’s not over yet and Russia must pay for every meter it takes.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!