From "The Analyst":
UKRAINE OFFICIALLY ON THE DEFENSIVE
The new CinC made it clear yesterday , Ukraine is now officially on the defensive and its position is to resist everywhere as much as possible for as long as possible.
It will prioritise saving lives, ammunition and weapons to extract the maximum cost from Russia for everything they try to take.
To my mind this is an admission of the glaringly obvious but it is required to shape the mentality of the people and create an understanding that this is now what it really always has been, a life or death struggle.
It laid the mental preparations for the loss of Avdivka - the city is almost indefensible and I can’t imagine that plans for a controlled departure aren’t well advanced.
Conserving ammunition in now a big deal. Drones are good but they don’t replace artillery when this war is still largely driven by artillery fire.
Ukraine has been preparing defensive lines in its rear areas for months now. All along its northern border, behind key areas along the entire front line. They learned the lesson the Russians provided.
This is now a war of Russian attacks and Russian losses. As we have seen attacking heavy defences is costly and dangerous. It takes at least three times the effort in men and machines to overcome a defensive position without preparation- with a heavy pre-prepared defence that cost rises to 7-8 times more than the defender.
That type of attrition is rarely sustainable.
And that’s what Ukraine now has to achieve. It has, like Britain in 1940-41, to stand alone and ready itself for what comes next. Eventually the aid will increase, the weapons will come both from at home and abroad.
It just takes time. And willpower. More than anything it takes willpower.
Yet Ukraine will remind Russia everyday behind the frontlines, that strategic targets are going to pay the price. They may be on the defensive on the ground - but the economic and military-strategic long range war has only just begun.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 !