“FROM THE ANALYST “ POLITICALLY DRIVEN OFFENSIVE IS COSTING RUSSIA DEARLY

It’s extraordinary that there seems to be a deeply politically motivated offensive being carried out at Putin’s behest. The point of it seems to be to garner support for Putin’s reelection, by providing victories to get votes. It’s almost as if he thinks Russians won’t vote for him. As if that mattered. Is he really so deluded he believes these elections are even vaguely free? It smacks of deep insecurity that even in a rigged election he’s afraid that people really won’t give him their support - that it will actually fall below a real majority that they polish to look better. Does he fear genuine lack of votes? Is he that fragile? It seems he must be.
Meanwhile Russia has launched an offensive like no other it’s ever attempted.
The focus in the past few day has been Chasiv Yar as the primary objective.
In aiming for this the Russians have been able to take a key village to its east, but the cost has been horrific.
Ukraine’s drone operators have made the area a killing zone for BMP’s, BTR’s, Tanks and support vehicles, never mind inflicting huge infantry casualties.
Yet the more that gets destroyed, the more the Russians divert into the objective - they aim to get what they want no matter the cost.
That’s all very well to a point. If your objectives are limited and you have the budget in vehicles and manpower to achieve it, but you can’t just pour resources into hot spots like this forever.
And that’s what the Ukrainian forces rely on. Extracting the highest possible price for the smallest possible gain is the way they wear this offensive down. They know the Russians can’t keep it up for ever, so it’s a mix of careful retreats and defensive operations that only happen at the last minute and cost the Russians an exorbitant amount of resources. Eventually they will have to slow down.
The Russians tend to use the battering ram approach. They bring in the TOS-1 thermobaric launchers, they smother the ground with heavy artillery fire, anything to make it impossible for a human to stay in a defensive position. Then they move in when they think there’s no opposition left. It’s at that point they become vulnerable. You can’t send in your own men while still launching area denial weapons like thermobaric rockets.
And that’s how the situation sits up and down the northern front.
It’s deeply challenging for the defenders and bloody as hell for the enemy.
In other good news it seems there’s been confirmation of the loss of another A-50U AWACS over the Rostov direction. This is seriously bad news for the Russians - they just don’t have enough of these to loose another. Wandering Uncle Patriot seems to have been busy again!

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
@ukrainejournal