Russia pushes Azerbaijan to attack Armenia, but Aliyev fears full-scale war due to Western sanctions threat.

In recent weeks, Armenian authorities have been warning that Azerbaijan, which last year seized the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) region, is now preparing to attack Armenia itself. In a late February interview with France 24 TV, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Azerbaijani authorities of not recognizing Armenia's territorial integrity, stating that an attack on his country is “highly likely.” Moreover, according to the Armenian side, Azerbaijani troops are currently occupying lands belonging to 31 Armenian villages, with the total occupied sovereign Armenian territory amounting to 170 square km.

The Insider spoke with regional experts about the likelihood of an Azerbaijani invasion, how prepared Armenia is for war, and what roles Russia, Turkey, and Western nations are playing in the developing situation.

While the experts differ in their assessment of the likelihood of a full-scale invasion of Armenia, they see short-term military actions possible and concur that the Kreminals will attempt to capitalize on the fighting. They confirm that the Kremlin supports Azerbaijan's aggression as Putin does not like Armenia's policy after 2018, and has chosen this strategy of undermining it. Russia has openly claimed its stake in the South Caucasus — alongside the broader post-Soviet domain — as part of its sphere of direct interests. And it generally takes this approach to post-Soviet countries — either a country will be maximally friendly towards Russia, or Russia will pursue a policy of undermining its statehood. As Armenia shifted focus as consequence of Russia's lack of support for Yerevan during Azerbaijan's assaults, the Kremlin already reacted with only thinly veiled threats coupled with accusations of “unfriendly steps” taken by Armenia.
Not to forget that fanning the flames of war in yet another region is seen by the Kreminals as perfect instrument to withdraw attention, money and military help for Ukraine.

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