From "The Analyst":
ITS DO OR DIE IN CONGRESS THIS WEEK
Speaker Mike Johnson has done his best to delay and obfuscate anything to do with aid for Ukraine.
This week he has promised to put down a bill that will aid Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Lend-lease style funding is more palatable to republicans but a core group who are basically conspiracy theorists and beholden to Russian propaganda, want zero - ever again. It will have to pass with a mix of republicans who have a brain - an increasingly rare phenomena, and Democrats. However if Israel aid is included 39 Democrats won’t vote for it either because of what’s happened in Gaza.
Meanwhile the Senate is saying it’s not interested in anything but the bill it’s already passed and the House should vote on that. It would struggle to pass as it contains aid for Israel and most republicans are opposed to it.
And if the Speaker didn’t have enough to contend with, Marjorie Traitor Greene has set a motion to vacate, forcing him out of his job if he brings any of these options to a vote. Now he may not lose this vote for his job. Republicans can’t find anyone else to do it, and democrats could rescue him if he agrees to the aid bill going forward.
And if that wasn’t complicated enough the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act expires on April 19th and is a must pass piece of legislation. Many republicans want to see it watered down - Traitor Greene amongst them.
Even if the House eventually passes a lend money based bill to Ukraine, with Russian funds used to pay for it, it’s still got to pass a senate that doesn’t want to go down this route, and would struggle to get 60 votes.
Traitor Greene faces a credibility problem - if these votes pass she has no choice but to force a vote on the speakership. That may well backfire on her big time, potentially risking the one last instant retirement from the republican majority of one, that hands the House to the Democratic Party. Then the senate bill will be passed and aid will flow.