Ukrainian Strikes on Russian oil refineries: What's the impact?
Drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and their economic impact have become one of the more successful Ukrainian campaigns.
As the war in Ukraine continues past the two-year mark, the intensity of the armed conflict between Moscow and Kyiv isn't letting up. While Russia is increasing its bombing runs of the Ukrainian frontlines and rocket attacks on the country’s energy grid, Ukraine has focused on drone attacks on the Russian oil refineries and its Black Sea Fleet. Both have their separate economic impacts.
Starting from January and up to the end of March, the Ukrainian armed forces launched 23 attacks on Russian oil refineries and storage facilities. Washington hasn't been supportive of attacks, as they go against the general strategy of the Biden administration that Ukraine shouldn't bring the war to Russian soil.
However, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stated in an interview with the WP: "The reaction of the US was not positive on this … We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t." The US can limit the use of only those armaments it has provided to Ukraine, he explained, which isn't the case in the campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
So far, Ukraine has temporarily put 16% of Russia's motor fuel production out of commission. Some hit oil refineries to varying results, the Volgograd plant, for example, has been severely damaged, and it might take approximately until the start of summer to repair according to Kommersant. Others were not seriously damaged, like the Ilsky oil refinery, which was repaired in less than a month.
The consequences:
"These strikes will create a lot of damage and putting refineries back on track will be incredibly challenging. They rely on sophisticated technology and a lot of large imported components," says Elina Ribakova, director of the International Programme at Kyiv School of Economics
Russian oil refineries play a crucial role in the country's economy and its global energy presence. As one of the world's largest oil producers, Russia relies heavily on its refining capacity to maintain its position in the global energy landscape.
The Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted this vital sector, causing immediate production losses and infrastructural damage. These strikes not only target Russia's economic infrastructure but also serve as a strategic move by Ukraine to retaliate against Russian aggression. As a result of the strikes, Russian refineries are facing operational challenges, leading to reduced output and supply chain disruptions.
"Since Russian import capacity for refined oil products is limited in the short run, since they're set up to export, it's actually a fairly clever way of causing disruption in the Russian market with limited impact globally," states Aslak Berg, Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform. Ukraine's strategy so far has been to conduct strikes against Russian oil refineries and not Russia's crude oil production facilities or export platforms.
"The Ukrainians have been hitting refineries, not Russian crude oil production or export facilities. This causes problems for Russia's domestic market for refined products, but for the rest of the world, a decline in Russia's exports of products will be compensated for by increased exports of crude oil," Berg explained.
There is also a good video from Anders Nielson.
It's legal? Oil refineries in Russian territory are “legitimate” targets for Ukrainian drone strikes, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a joint press briefing with Finnish President Alexander Stubb on April 10. Stoltenberg reiterated that Ukraine has the right to defend itself by military means. (The whole briefing is interesting)
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