China predicted ruZZia's defeat in the war, and calls ruZZia an enormous threat for Europe and ex-Soviet republics. - Feng Yujun, professor at Peking University, director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University.
According to the expert, a former member of the Kremlin's Valdai International Discussion Club, four factors will determine the fiasco of the Ukrainian invasion for Putin.
1.) the high level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians.
2.) international support for Ukraine, which, despite the recent decline, remains substantial.
3.) the nature of modern warfare, which depends on a combination of industrial power and command, control, communications, and intelligence systems. RuZZia is experiencing difficulties in the war, and this may be due to the fact that the country has not yet recovered from the deindustrialization experienced after the collapse of the USSR.
4.) Putin has fallen into an information cocoon because of his long dictatorship. The Kremlin lacks reliable intelligence, and the system in which the leadership operates lacks an effective mechanism for correcting mistakes.
Feng Yujun stresses that ruZZia's defeat due to these four factors is inevitable and overtime Moscow will have to withdraw its troops from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Even its nuclear potential does not guarantee their victory.
The Ukrainian war has become a turning point for ruZZia: it has put Putin's regime in broad international isolation and created fertile ground for "all kinds of black swans," that is, for various unpredictable catastrophes that the authorities have already faced and will continue to face. As examples, he cites the Wagner uprising, ethnic tensions, and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow.
Growing awareness of ruZZia imperial ambitions convinces former Soviet that it is a threat to their independence and territorial integrity. "These states are moving away from Moscow in various ways: from forming an economic policy that is less dependent on ruZZia to pursuing a more balanced foreign policy. As a result, the prospects for Eurasian integration, which ruZZia is talking about, have faded."
And it has made Europe aware of the enormous threat that ruZZia poses to the security of the continent and the international order. Many European countries have "abandoned their illusions" about ruZZia and Putin. The war forced NATO to increase military spending and deploy more military equipment in eastern Europe. The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO showed Putin's inability to use the war to prevent the expansion of NATO.
The Chinese professor claims also that "no one should doubt China's desire to end this brutal war through negotiations" and "this desire shows that China and Russia are completely different countries. Russia seeks to undermine the existing international and regional order through war, while China seeks to resolve disputes peacefully."
Feng Yujun warns also that if the conflict in Ukraine is frozen without "fundamental changes in the political system and ideology of ruZZia," then the Kremlin will have an opportunity to regain strength and unleash new wars.
Source
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