Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2024 (A few highlights)

• Zelensky stressed the problems Ukraine faces due to the shortages in air defense systems and artillery.

• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine utilize smaller groups for assaults and are plagued by morale issues; however, the Ukrainian material shortage means these attacks are unlikely to culminate in the near future.

• Ukraine’s SBU successfully targeted a Russian Nebo-U long-range radar station in Bryansk Oblast.

• The Kremlin continues to exert a centralized authority over Ramzan Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces via the Russian MoD.

Zelensky stressed the problems Ukraine faces in defending against Russian air and ground assaults due to the shortages in air defense systems and artillery.

In an interview with PBS News Hour, Zelensky mentioned that Ukrainian forces were only able to destroy the first seven out of eleven Russian missiles launched against the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) on April 11th. The plant was subsequently destroyed due to this ammunition shortage involving air-defense systems.

Furthermore, Zelensky mentioned that Ukrainian forces are at the short end of the stick with an artillery disadvantage of 1-to-10. Because of this artillery shortage, the Ukrainians have gradually lost some territory. As ISW critically mentions, “Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a constant air domain offense-defense innovation-adaptation race, in which Russia continues to adjust the timing, scale, composition, and targets of its strike packages to attempt to penetrate Ukraine’ air defense umbrella.”

Basically, the Russians are trying to launch air attacks in an eccentric fashion to confuse and exploit Ukraine’s air defenses. The delay in US aid for air defenses is helping these attacks become more successful.

Russian forces in eastern Ukraine utilize smaller groups for assaults and are plagued by morale issues; however, the Ukrainian material shortage means these attacks are unlikely to culminate in the near future.

Colonel Ruslan Muzychuk, spokesperson of the Ukrainian National Guard, recently stated that in eastern Ukraine, the Russians have opted to use small groups split into two detachments. The detachments are reinforced with armored vehicles to assist in ground attacks.

Furthermore, the Russians have been relying more on small, unprotected vehicles (the Chinese golf carts, for example) to rapidly approach Ukrainian positions with the hope of setting ideal conditions for subsequent Russian infantry groups to assault and secure the positions.

Oleh Kalashnikov, press officer for the Ukrainian 26th Artillery Brigade, stated publicly the Russians in the Bakhmut area seem to have opted for these smaller group attacks because Ukrainian drones immediately detect battalion-sized ground attacks and thwart them well.

At most, the Russians are using company-sized attacks. Kalashnikov also mentioned that Russian troops in this sector are experiencing chronic morale problems and use barrier troops to prevent troops from retreating. These morale problems would be ideal to exploit, but with the shortages in artillery that Ukraine faces, ISW predicts these Russian attacks are unlikely to culminate in the near future.

Ukraine’s SBU successfully targeted a Russian Nebo-U long-range radar station in Bryansk Oblast.

Per SBU sources, this particular Nebo-U station allowed Russian forces to survey up to 700 kilometers into Ukrainian airspace. Furthermore, the system was capable of detecting Ukrainian weapons and supporting Russian bombers to target concentrations of Ukrainian troops. Previously, the SBU successfully destroyed another Nebo-U station in Belgorod Oblast.

The Kremlin continues to exert a centralized authority over Ramzan Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces via the Russian MoD.

(1/2)Vladimir Putin signed a decree on April 16 appointing Commander of the Akhmat Spetsnaz - Apty Alaudinov - as the Deputy Head of the Main Directorate for Military-Political Work at the Russian MoD. This part of the Russian MoD is involved in ensuring Russian forces follow closely to Russia’s political ideology. This move is noteworthy due to not only it falls on the 15th year anniversary of the Kremlin declaring victory in Chechnya but also since it follows Kadyrov’s recent announcement that 3,000 former Wagner Group members would join the Akhmat Spetsnaz.

The ISW notes two probable reasons for this move by Putin. First, he is probably trying to establish safeguards to ensure Chechen leadership remains loyal to the Kremlin since Kadyrov’s forces continue to grow. Second, it might be a way to continue formalizing these atypical units under the MoD. In other words, ensure these forces remain loyal and reigned in under Putin’s control.

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