6. Intoxicated by the "election victory," Putin ignores the risks: attempts to seize another hundred square kilometers of Ukraine will provoke increased internal instability in Russia itself.

7. Judging by the mood of Russians, support for the war is falling. According to the Russian Field poll, 70% of Russians favor the start of peace talks: 49% favor unconditional peace and another 21% would support Putin if he "signs a peace agreement." "Hawks" make up 19% of the total mass. At the same time, only 6% are "irreconcilable", demanding to wage war until "complete victory" and the capture of Kyiv, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris.