Why is it so important to pass Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (financial assistance to Ukraine) and what will likely happen when it is supported by a majority of lawmakers from both parties and promptly signed into law by U.S. President Biden.

◾️ This means that arms and ammunition, which Ukraine has been in short supply of, may already be sent to Ukraine in the coming weeks (deliveries will be made, among other things, from US bases and depots in Europe).

◾️ Add to this the fact that Europe (whose economic potential is 10 times higher than Russia's) has also become active in matters of military aid for Ukraine, financing Ukraine through various "arms coalitions" and on a bilateral basis.

So, by the beginning of the probable Russian summer offensive, the situation may be as follows:

◾️ Ukraine has partially managed to build defense structures comparable to the Russian "Surovikin Line."

◾️ Ukraine has adopted a new version of the law on mobilization, which will increase the number of soldiers in the Ukrainian Army.

◾️ The first batches of ammunition will soon be delivered to Ukraine as part of the Czech initiative to buy 1 million shells for Ukraine.

◾️ The U.S. aid bill for Ukraine includes the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles (which was not included in previous versions of the "aid package"). The precedent of transferring even a small number of such missiles will "move the issue of supplying similar weapons by European countries (particularly Germany) off the ground".

◾️ Ukraine will receive F-16s in the summer of 2024, for which crews have already been trained. This will significantly reduce Russia's advantage in the air, in particular, the possibility of using KABs on the front line.

◾️ There will be an increase in the number of modern air defense systems that will protect Ukrainian infrastructure and military-logistic chains. In addition to the prompt delivery of Patriot batteries from Germany, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's initiative to purchase similar systems from third countries is promising.

◾️ Ukraine was able to establish its own production of missiles and long-range drones, including Neptun missiles, which previously existed only in single copies. In this context, curious events may already take place in Crimea in the coming months.

In any case, the ability of Ukrainians to "work in the rear" has grown by leaps and bounds, and this is noticeable even in regions far removed from Russian combat zones.

It would be wise to remember that the capture of small Avdiivka cost the Russian Armed Forces tens of thousands of dead Russian occupiers. It is simply impossible to imagine the cost of capturing Kharkiv or forcing the Dnipro river - it would mean hundreds of thousands of dead Russians.

🔹 Conclusions:

1. The West does not demonstrate "fatigue" from Ukraine. Despite various inconsistencies and difficulties, the scale of military assistance is increasing.

2. The Kremlin is under the illusion of its ability to control the development of the conflict. This situation is reminiscent of the first months of war. Putin, having started the war, did not calculate the possible consequences. Now he has no way to stop. He has dragged Russia into a war from which he did not foresee a way out.

3. Many military analysts claim that the Russian Armed Forces have already "squeezed the maximum" out of the situation when Ukraine experienced interruptions in supplies of equipment and ammunition. At the same time, its successes are tactical, while the losses of manpower and equipment are huge.

4. Even a hypothetical success of a future Russian offensive will not lead to the end of the war and the surrender of Ukraine.

5. No offensive is possible without mass mobilization. Another 1-2 million Russians would need to be mobilized. In addition, numerous losses will have to be compensated by new waves of mobilization.