FRANCE & GERMANY: SAME
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There is no relationship more important to the success of the European Union. There is no relationship in the modern world that has been rebuilt from the ground up, to work in a level of general harmony, even to the point of holding joint cabinet meetings. From the ashes of three wars, all of which, from Franco-Prussian war of 1870-71 that saw the collapse of the French Second Empire, and Paris besieged, with swathes of Northern France occupied by the newly created German Empire - declared in the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles. The First World War ended with France severely damaged - almost all of the western front remained in France for the whole war. Millions died. But the German Empire was crushed and the humiliation of the Treaty of Versailles was signed in the very same Hall of Mirrors. The Nazis used the treaty as one of their causes. In WW2 Hitler had the railway carriage extracted from a
Paris museum and placed on the spot Germany surrendered on in 1918, only this time France was crushed and occupied. This tit for tat vindictiveness literally shaped world history. President de Gaulle - legendary leader of the Free French knew he had a chance to break the cycle when West Germany was created in 1955 from the occupied territory of the allies. Russia created the DDR.
Since then France and Germany have cooperated and worked together in the EU. Sometimes France takes the lead, sometimes Germany does, it depends on the politics of the time, and the strength of personality at the helm of each country.
Right now it’s France and the Germans are having a tough time of going along with it.
Having just announced a new cooperation agreement to produce the MGCS - the Main Ground Combat System, the pair seem as close as they have been for decades. The new not-a-tank tank is to be robotic, unmanned, AI controlled and ready by 2040. They claim it will represent a technological breakthrough. Call me old fashioned but it’s sounds creepy and dystopian, and like a whole lot of trouble. But then I watch and write a lot of sci-fi.
They haven’t however been able to overcome their differences in the world of 6th Gen fighters. France is utterly determined to sustain its full scale military aviation industry and will not relent on production sharing and technological development. The MGCS was easy in comparison because both countries have a robust tank manufacturing base and could work out a production sharing deal. Germany doesn’t have the military aviation sector France does.
So while both sides agree on most things, it’s not perfect.
What is most certainly not perfect is, in the German Chancellor’s mind -
and many of his supporters - President Macron suddenly and firmly taking the lead in resisting Russia.
They both cowered under the gaze of Putin. They both welcomed the tyrant, negotiated with him and believed he would see reason. There’s always a bit of Olaf Shultz (and Merckl before him) that makes you think he still hankers after that simplistic relationship. It was always going to end badly and they were both warned over and over.
Shultz is a bizarrely German creation. He’s overseeing a radical rejig of Germany’s defence posture and between him and his minsters, eventually provided a staggering amount of aid to Ukraine - far more than France has even started to muster. Indeed France is still way behind. Some of what it provided, such as the peculiarity of the AMX-10 wheeled recon tank, failed hideously in frontline use (as predicted in every wargame it appeared in).
Yet it’s Macron who has seized the leadership role. It’s Macron who said if needed he would send French troops to Ukraine - half of Europe cheered him on, while Olaf Shultz had to lay down in a dark room and bite his fingernails off while crying, before saying Germany won’t be doing that. Nobody was surprised.
This last few days Macron went one step further. If you read his speech you can almost see German leaders feinting at the very thought of any of it. Some will agree but it frightens them to death. CONT../