RUSSIANS AIM FOR FULL CONTROL

The Russians have started to attack again from the Kupiansk area, right along that sector of the front.
The obvious reason is that they feel they have an advantage now and they need to stop Ukraine from deploying reserves further north.
Because the Russians tend to try and focus once they find a weak spot, this time they isolated Kislivka. After days of bombardment they attacked here.
Worryingly the Ukrainians lost control over the village - they had held onto it for over a year - suggesting a lack of ammunition and artillery support due to ongoing shortages.
They then turned to the next village but didn’t get so far.
The interesting aspect of this region is the fact that this is the sector where Ukraine still holds remnants of the Luhansk oblast and these last settlements are just inside these borders. The Russians seem to want to capture these areas to finally claim the whole region as theirs.
Stelmakivka became their next target, supported by Ouragan and glide bomb attacks.
The Russians then attacked in Chinese made ‘golf carts’ - a slightly elevated mix of cart crossed with an ATV, completely unprotected and open air with a canopy.
Further north the Russians themselves had to withdraw near Sinkivka because many of their own troops had been sent to the Kharkiv offensive. Lyman Pershy village then became the scene of Ukrainians attacking Russian positions with a pair of tanks and eradicating them as they hid in the basement of houses the tanks levelled.
Overall the Russians are clearly trying to force the Ukrainians back to the Oskil river - the closer they get to it the more they will force the Ukrainians to have to decide if they abandon land on the east bank and retreat to the west side. This would suit the Russians completely. They seem to have an overall strategy of using rivers and reservoirs as a possible border - certainly a defensive line that will then allow them to redeploy forces to other areas to do the same thing.
Ultimately they want control over the Oblasts - Donetsk and Luhansk - in full, and this seems to be the primary objective.
The ongoing shortage of frontline equipment for Ukrainian forces is being redressed, but is shows how low levels reached - and again, how initially it will stay that way even as aid arrives. As fast as they get it they use it, so there’s no time to create backup supplies in the first phase.
The Russians still very much have the initiative at present but they do seem unable to mount major offensives at the same time. They use opportunities and try to exploit them but the lack of armour and heavy equipment is really starting to show.
Once the aid arrives in quantities they’ll not be able to do what they’re doing now.
Indeed if the Ukrainians are careful and sustain the defence, by next year - if a new Administration continues support - Ukraine will be much better placed to undo some of the damage.
However early signs are that even if the Democrats in the US win the Presidency and the House they won’t win the Senate - and it will be far more MAGAized than it is now. That will put us right back to where we were early this year.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

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