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From "The Analyst":

FULL FRONTLINE UPDATE

KHARKIV
There’s a lot of deviation between the Russian claims, neutral claims and Ukrainian claims over who controls what and how deep the grey zone of contact is. Russian sources always claim the grey zones as their own, but this level of diversion is indicative of a very tense, very complex and fluctuating situation where neither side has a firm handle on what’s going on.
Baring in mind how much effort the Russians put into this front they’re really not doing very well or getting very far.
We have to allow for the fact they had the luxury of not being disrupted before they crossed the frontier and Ukraine had to give ground even to target them with artillery, being banned from firing over the border - which is something the Russians have been using to their distinct advantage with supply trucks and artillery.
Frankly there is a lot of surprise that Russia hasn’t made more progress. The lack of Russian APC’s and tanks is noticeable. It’s very much an infantry and drone offensive.
Even further north west the Russians are putting some 15,000 ‘poorly trained and incoherent troops’ on the Sumy section of the front.
Vovchansk is a mess, hundreds of civilians dead in the streets, widespread executions and torture chambers reported every day. This is no ‘war of liberation’ as the Russians would call it.

SHEREBETS RIVER

The land east of the river has seen a small decline in fighting. The area and salient west of Kremina, towards Torske, has been quieter in the past days.

BILAHORIVKA

There’s been reports of heavy MLRS use from the Russians. However the Russians haven’t moved.

CHASIV YAR

The Russians have gained a little land into the Canal Zone micro-district. However their losses again, disproportionately high for land gained.
They are still nowhere near the main part of the own and have not crossed the canal.
Further south and east however at Ivaniske, the Russians have made gains taking further control of a key road. They now have 90% control of Ivaniske.
However - the Russians are moaning like mad about Ukrainian artillery dramatically upscaling its rate of fire.
The Russians are trying to take the underground canal sections because they can get over them through the woods and use them to undermine the defence.

KLIESHIEVKA

The Russians claim to have complete control, but they don’t as both neutral and Ukrainian mappers and analysts say that simply isn’t true - they’re the ones using geolocated information.
Even so the village is just a pile of dust now, there’s nowhere to hide. The Russian losses here are said to run at 1:10 in Ukraine’s favour. It’s a place of constant attrition.

AVDIVKA

The Russians have seemingly slowed to a stop here having come up against obstacles almost everywhere.
Only in the southern sector out of Pervomaiske have they made small gains.
The Russians do now control Pobeda and they continue to push slowly towards Constantinivke.

URAZHINE & ROBOTYNE

The first hasn’t changed form this mornings briefing, and there’s been a lot of fighting at Robotyne. Dormiver a week the Russians have been pushing and getting nowhere.

KRYNKY

Russian forces have been attacking hard at Krynky but apparently getting nowhere.

So there’s the current situation.
My thoughts on Kharkiv are that the Russians have bitten off more than they thought. It’s been a lot more vicious and harder going than they expected.
The consequences of that are that they will be forced to suck in more of their resources more quickly as the struggle gets harder.
In fact the more Ukraine pushes back or makes it difficult for them, the more Russia needs to use to avoid being ignominiously pushed out.
That’s the trouble with these things, they take on a will of their own and Russia hates being seen to lose so to be kicked out of this region so soon isn’t acceptable. That means they have to fight hard and long and use more resources. More indeed than they set out to, just to stand still. If Ukraine gets permission to hit over the border the picture could change quickly.

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