From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

FRONTLINE FAILURES COMPOUND RETREATS

There’s no point in glossing over the news from the front.
We are seeing Russian success against Ukrainian forces that they pick on precisely because they know they have some kind of weakness.
One unit was nearly routed because it ‘had not been trained to retreat properly’. That led to an almost 6km hole in the frontline the Russians have quickly advanced through.
Inexperienced units have been getting in the others way when it comes to drone operations and failing to coordinate their actions. Again, exploited by the Russians.
‘Fire brigade’ units like the 47th found themselves unable to stop a Russian advance because ‘the infantry on our side had disappeared’. Again, lack of training and preparedness in the infantry units.
All across the front, reported by Ukrainian journalists and bloggers, we see Russian units deliberately identifying the lowest experienced Ukrainian units and going up against them in force. Either they work this out from observation of they have outstanding intelligence on what the Ukrainian deployment and unit quality assessment is telling commanders.
The scale of Russian attacks is wide and across the entire front. They make small gains but they make a lot of small gains. Far too many.
Russian equipment losses are terrible, in one attack 11 tanks and 36 BMP’s went up against the Ukrainians and all were destroyed - but it takes experienced troops to withstand that kind of attack such as this in Novomikhailivka.
This is a lot of vehicles for the Russians to use. They have stockpiled as much as they can and they lose it at an extraordinarily high pace. But they do, in the end take more land in most circumstances.
The frontline situation is grave, there’s no doubt about that. It isn’t collapsing, but the retreats are getting to be almost continuous and serious over time.
Ukraine needs men and more equipment. My concern is that one thing will break that can’t be stopped - the Russians are betting on it. It hasn’t happened - yet.