From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

RUSSIAN GRAND STRATEGY BUT NO EFFECTIVE CAPABILITY

Russia has in some ways learned to plan for wider, interlinked operational effect along the entire front. There is no doubt that they coordinated their northern front attacks earlier this year from Kupiansk to Kremina, going so far as to reorganise the military command structure to eliminate internal friction. Even so, the operation failed.
The Pokorovsk-Tortesk-Chasiv Yar operation is another example of what they are trying to do, using a strategic plan to create the conditions for tactical gains.
The new offensive in the south against Vuhledar suggests another larger plan.
The problem with all of these plans is first the maxim, ‘that no plan survives contact with the enemy’. They never do, you cannot predict accuracy or success.
The biggest problem is that Russian grand strategy doesn’t have the manpower with the capabilities to deliver it, the machinery to effectively support it on such a scale, or an officer caste that was educated and experienced in operating in new ways.
The plans may be entirely reasonable from a General Staff perspective, but when the the delivery of these objectives is handed to a bunch of barely trained and under equipped infantry units that can’t possibly execute such complex plans or manoeuvres, who are poorly supplied and lack morale, then the reality is, despite the effort and the organisation, the forces conducting the operation will not survive contact with their enemy.
Unquestionably Russia has a strategic approach to the war, more than at any time since they started it, but for the most part, actually seeing it materialise is something else completely.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!