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The launch is detected by the American early warning system in space, the flash message is directed instantly to the Ukrainian command through long practiced and improved protocols but time is the problem. Even as the message is being relayed the refuelling rig is only half way through its job. The pilot has to go, now, max burn up the runway, the rig crew know they can only run - the F-16 blasts it’s afterburner as the rig crew scatter - the F-16 roars into the air as the ground behind it explodes and the rig evaporates in a mix of kerosene and high explosive fragmentation warhead. The pilot hears his fighter hull peppered by tiny fragments. He prays they hit nothing vital. At barely 200ft he keeps low and slow aiming to get back to base.
It could all have been far worse - and in reality it probably would have been.
F-16’s cannot forward operate while the Russian Orlan-10 spy drone problem continues. Already an issue that has caused multiple Ukrainian air frame losses and been responsible for many deep ranges attacks on crucial live targets (rail junctions and transshipment points especially) in recent weeks. They’re a plague that’s not easy to eradicate or solve. If they’re not removed from the environment then there’s no real way to forward operate any of these aircraft anymore.
The concept of the F-16 solving the glide bomb issue is erroneous. It cannot get that close to the front and survive Russian air to air or ground to air defences.
Operating at low altitude from distant rear bases is difficult because it lacks range - the lower you fly the more fuel you burn. Maybe some strike opportunities will be available to it given planning and preparation.
So what can the F-16 do? It can try and hunt cruise missiles - if it can see them because the radar in these variants isn’t suited to that kind of low observable target.
But it’s biggest drawback is that it needs frontal operating fuel support if its to have any impact high or low. Its bases will be located and the Russians will hammer them. That requires more air defence that’s not being used for critical infrastructure. And if those Orlan spy drones with their ability to call in Iskander ballistic missile strikes at such speed remain the pain they already are, their forward operating bases are under constant surveillance and threat.
The Ukrainians will figure out a way to use them and the early warning aircraft Sweden is supplying will help, but it’s going to be a deeply challenging environment - made worse by the high propaganda and political value they represent as a target.
These variants of F-16 are not geared up for the frontline in Ukraine and they’re not ideal in air to air engagements against modern Russian aircraft - missile ranges and capabilities are far beyond the point these F-16’s were designed to deal with - which is why their countries ditched them for the F-35 after all. They’re out of date. So how Ukraine finds a way to maximise their impact will be interesting to see.
Air warfare analysts have a pretty dim view of their chances. Even more of a dim view about their basing - because the more of them Ukraine has the easier they will be to find and destroy.
And we should not and cannot underestimate the importance of these Russian spy drones operating in the rear. They have become a major problem nobody wants to talk about. You can’t see them and there’s almost nothing to stop them even if you could. It was these that called in the strike that blew up trains carrying M2’s to the front, have taken out many long range artillery units and the aircraft listed above. They’re immensely effective. Unchallenged they will only become a bigger problem as the Russians can see how effective they are in real time.
The F-16 faces a deeply complicated environment and its far from being the best aircraft to cope with it. Bearing all of that in mind, never underestimate the enthusiasm and inventiveness of Ukrainians. They will surprise us I am sure. CONTINUES…