Do you want the good news or the bad news first?
Seems to me, this military analyst has access to a lot of information but terrible mood swings! He's up and down like a yo-yo!
To leave you on a positive note, let's start with the less optimistic news...
Dianna

MORALE IS LOW, DESERTIONS ARE HIGH AND UKRAINE IS LOSING

This is based on recent reporting from Ukrainian journalists, direct reporting from on site pro-Ukrainian ex-patriots and other sources who really don’t want to be named or even hinted at being identified.

Estimates of as many as 100,000 Ukrainian deserters are seen as fairly on point.
The reason is that there’s such a shortage of quality equipment, because the west isn’t supplying it on any scale worth its name, that soldiers believe they will die without any hope of going home again.
The morale of front line soldiers was described as being at best, similar to German troops in July 1944 - D-Day had happened and it was clear they were in no position to stop the allied advance in the west or Russia’s in the east. But they still had hope.
At worst Ukrainian morale is described as Germans in January 1945.
They had just lost the battle of the Bulge, allied forces were entering Germany proper, the Russians were on the Oder just a handful of miles from Berlin. They knew it was over but they still wouldn’t give in.
I don’t like the comparison with Germany in 44-45 but to be fair if you have the historical perspective and understanding of that period in detail, you can understand where the observation has its validity.
If you accept the premise of the description simply on the basis of historical comparison, and I urge you to do so for clarity - then things are truly dire.
The Ukrainians are good at propaganda and the diet we are fed is one of endless positivity.
I understand why, but it can blind you to reality and it’s an unpalatable realisation that things are not what they seem.
The problem for Ukraine is that its allies want it to win but they just haven’t learned that to make that happen there must be a financial price the public of the west must pay.
Winning costs money. Winning takes up industrial capacity and requires resources and determination to make happen.
Why is there no factory turning out basic war equipment for Ukrainian soldiers 24/7?
Why is there still not the capacity to produce 155mm shells at anything like the pace needed to keep on top of the need?
Why is there no European factory devoted to turning out say, Saab CV-90’s at a rate of ten or twenty a day?
Why hasn’t missile production for anti-air been stepped up not just to the feeble maximum of the one factory that makes one of eight different kinds of missiles? But all factories, and all the component factories, why are they still not working at five times what they are?
It’s because we in the West have not done enough.
We have said the words, “we will stand by Ukraine to the end”, while so under-arming and equipping it that we have ensured that the end is coming - and not one that ends in our favour, let alone Ukraine’s.
What is wrong with our governments that they cannot see where this goes if it carries on like this?
Shockingly I spoke to a female friend the other day who I have not seen in a while. She’s a professional in a major UK business. She asked what I was doing. When I said ‘writing a lot about the war in Ukraine’, advising interested parties’…she looked at me quizzically, ‘Oh’, she said, ‘is that still going on?’
She is not alone in that regard.
Most people have brushed the war aside in the minds and forgotten it’s even happening.
This is why the war is being lost.  The Public have lost interest and don’t know. So their leaders seeing and hearing no pressure have lost all but the minimum interest.
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