The Russians are plodders…
It suits their style of rigid command and planned assaults. They just keep at it. If Ukraine is going to win it needs equipment and resources to break that mould and regain the initiative. None of which it’s scheduled to get.
Russia is worried about its manpower issues and its economic situation is stretching it thin. But its allies seem to be relishing the chance to have a go at Ukraine - not because it’s Ukraine but because it would humiliate the West - especially America. That plays well for China, DPRK and Iran, all of whom have good reason to take the opportunity to get at their primary opponents as they see it.
This grinding war is being fought at a strategic level too. The relentless Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries (which have stopped and so have Russian attacks on electricity generation in Ukraine- has there been a secret agreement, it was on the cards?), then the attacks on ammunition depots and supply points has been crucial. The attacks on airfields have forced Russian aircraft back and further back, making the use of glide bomb attacks far harder.
The Russians use a formalised and more rigid approach to their supply chain whereas Ukraine’s is more like a distributed supply system with few if any major depots.
Both sides are under immense pressure and it’s getting to them both. The difference is Russia brooks no dissent and no discussion of dissent. As another mil blogger complaining about shell starvation has just found out, whisked off to court for defaming the Russian army.
Putin feels he is winning - and he is, and his allies are happy to commit more as they see that fact too.
We in the West are letting Ukraine survive but not win. We should be ashamed of ourselves for being so cynical.
I was raised to believe that if a thing is worth doing, it’s worth doing well. We are not doing well. And we are not doing the right thing. We’re only half way there. Are we all in are we just pretending?
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!