MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
KURSK & TORETSK

The situation in Kursk is beginning to seem a little odd.
The Russians have made some advances from the west but they haven’t really been trying very hard - it’s not clear why. They had this under control then stopped.
It wasn’t anything the Ukrainians did in the salient so the assumption is they ran out of ammo - being the most northern part of the front they were likely being supplied from the ammo depots Ukraine destroyed first as they were closest and would have been first to feel it. Given the speed at which they were deployed there were no stocks to cushion the cut off.
Ukrainians in Kursk are in no position to resume an offensive so they’re gaining time to establish defensive points.
The other aspect of the Russian operation is they are not under military command - it’s under FSB control, and Putin for reasons that remain speculation but make sense (only if you think like a Russian dictator), is seemingly unwilling to appoint an individual to oversee the operation. Think along the lines of, this is Russian land, being liberated by Russians and therefore whoever commands it will be seen as a hero and popular. Popular isn’t good when the only person allowed to be popular is Putin.
Meanwhile it’s no secret anymore that there’s a lot of questions being asked about Kursk in Moscow and nobody really understands why it hasn’t been dealt with.

Meanwhile in Toretsk, the Ukrainians managed to stop the Russians employing another of their spike attacks.
This involved a narrow push with assault troops to enter the city centre and roll up the high rise buildings that run east-west along its ‘spine’. This would have given them fire control over everything else and made it impossible to operate in the town, with Ukrainian forces split in two. Once established the spike spreads out from the centre - they’ve used this tactic successfully multiple times now.
However the Ukrainians have developed a solution.
Firstly, once you spot the spike developing you prevent it from moving forward using repeated counter attacks. You destroy the momentum by reducing the buildings in this case, that the Russians plan to take, to rubble.
Then, using drones to pin the Russians in the stem of the spike down, to a point where they were too afraid to even look out of a window there were so many drones waiting for them. One got stuck trying to get in through a window and the drone blew him in half.
Then the Ukrainian elite assault troops move in and root them out.
This completely collapsed the Russian plan to quickly take Toretsk and it remains in Ukrainian hands. It was a tough fight, literally room to room stairwell to landing search and eradicate.

Overall the Russians seem to have been suffering from a mixture of exhaustion, low morale and unquestionably the ammo shortages have caught up. This has provided a breathing space for the Ukrainians they really need. The ammo shortages will not last - a month at most I suspect - but by then the weather will hopefully have changed.
The weather currently is still between 13-23c along most of the frontline during a day. It’s unseasonably warm and dry with mostly clear skies. Ideal military operations weather without intense heat, and the ground is solid. The Russians will be very disappointed they can’t maximise the opportunity it provides.

Elsewhere I’m repeatedly hearing that the Zelensky Victory Plan is more than it seems and those few who have seen it say it ‘could’ work.
You know my view of plans, nothing goes wrong like one and few ever survive the reality of combat.
That there is a plan is both a morale boosting strategy for anyone involved in the fighting and shows they’re still trying to ensure a win
80% of Ukrainians allegedly, say they think they can win if given enough to do the job.