MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
KURSK - PUTIN’S COSTLY OBSESSION

We all understand why he might want the Ukrainians out of the region. It has more to do with pride and denying them even the slightest advantage come January.
The resources now involved are considerable and Ukraine’s interest now is twofold - it wants to hold on to some land for negotiations as much as Putin doesn’t want them to, and just as importantly, keep 50,000 Russians amused in Russia rather than let them wander back to areas in Ukraine they might make a difference.
You all I know my original view on Kursk. It was an opportunistic attack almost out of desperation. I remain convinced that it was a poor use of valuable resources at the time it was launched and the Ukrainians lost control of the situation in September and nearly lost everything. Russian incompetence came to their rescue.
Now the political and strategic landscape has changed and holding it has become almost as vital as any other part of the front. The Russians have allowed themselves to make it important enough to be worth it, because they too are driven by the changed politics and in their case, the increasingly fraught economics of the war.
The fighting here has become relentless with as many as eight assaults an hour as Russia flings small groups of men and equipment into the fray, in the hopes that eventually the Ukrainian defenders will run out of ammunition or men or both.
Russian soldiers are bullet sponges, there to absorb ammo until the defenders are exhausted and retreat. It’s become so bad that moral is so low, several fights and a riot have occurred behind the lines as they realise their fate. With desperation has come increasing brutality- a 62 year old soldier thrown naked into a pit in freezing conditions for accidentally leaving his kit behind. The attitude was ‘If he lives lucky him, if he doesn’t so what?’ With no food or water he’s unlikely to make it. The brutality against Ukrainian POW’s has returned - executions are preferred rather than deal with getting them out of the frontlines to camps.
This is the desperate state of parts of the Russian army. The deliberate brutality of the officer cadre is now endemic.

Yesterday the Ukrainians executed an outstanding tactical manoeuvre that’s being described as ‘military exceptionalism’.
The Russians like their ‘spike’ attacks and have used them extensively and successfully in many areas this year. These involve taking a narrow corridor of land and then progressively pushing it deeper and widening the base of the spike into a salient.
They tried such a manoeuvre in Kursk, again aiming to reach the key junction of Malya Locknya .
These operations were initially successful, because they drive deeply and then back-fill with troops to support the flanks and the small settlements they take.
Realising they couldn’t dislodge the Russians easily - this tactic is immensely effective- the Ukrainians decided to do what I have regarded as the only solution to such an attack, and have been disappointed by how slowly they react to it.
You have to cut it off before it develops. As close to the base of the spike as possible.
The terrain here favours the defenders enormously, as it’s all hills with the road the Russians advance along in the lowlands.
With their mechanised forces destroyed previously the Russian holding forces dropped off along the way had no real backup and no support to widen the salient. Another example of dire communications and low grade planning.
The Ukrainians came down from the hills and surrounded the defending Russians in each sector of occupation - the Russians realised what was happening and sent in armour to try and break the Ukrainian encirclements.
The Ukrainians didn’t let the Russians get far and stopped the advance before it could help. The Russians were stuck and could only be supplied by drone.